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Crawley Town
League Two | Gameweek 26
Jan 1, 2024 at 3pm UK
The People's Pension Stadium
Swindon Town

Crawley
3 - 1
Swindon

Orsi (9', 53'), Roles (26')
FT(HT: 2-0)
Kemp (90+2')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Monday's League Two clash between Crawley Town and Swindon Town, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: MK Dons 2-0 Crawley
Friday, December 29 at 7.45pm in League Two
Last Game: Swindon 2-1 Forest Green
Friday, December 29 at 7.45pm in League Two

We said: Crawley Town 2-1 Swindon Town

Clashes like this are often tight and intense, with both teams desperate not to lose ground as they are level on points. However, the recent trend in this fixture favours whichever team is at home and we think this trend will continue. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Crawley Town win with a probability of 39.36%. A win for Swindon Town had a probability of 38.1% and a draw had a probability of 22.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Crawley Town win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (5.62%) and 2-0 (4.85%). The likeliest Swindon Town win was 1-2 (8.1%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.54%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Crawley Town would win this match.

Result
Crawley TownDrawSwindon Town
39.36% (0.31 0.31) 22.54% (-0.097000000000001 -0.1) 38.1% (-0.218 -0.22)
Both teams to score 67.19% (0.375 0.38)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
66.54% (0.48599999999999 0.49)33.46% (-0.491 -0.49)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
44.74% (0.553 0.55)55.25% (-0.559 -0.56)
Crawley Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
82.24% (0.34 0.34)17.75% (-0.345 -0.35)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
51.56% (0.588 0.59)48.44% (-0.594 -0.59)
Swindon Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
81.69% (0.114 0.11)18.3% (-0.119 -0.12)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
50.61% (0.196 0.2)49.38% (-0.201 -0.2)
Score Analysis
    Crawley Town 39.36%
    Swindon Town 38.1%
    Draw 22.54%
Crawley TownDrawSwindon Town
2-1 @ 8.24% (0.0039999999999996 0)
1-0 @ 5.62% (-0.082000000000001 -0.08)
2-0 @ 4.85% (-0.016 -0.02)
3-1 @ 4.75% (0.055 0.05)
3-2 @ 4.03% (0.061 0.06)
3-0 @ 2.8% (0.022 0.02)
4-1 @ 2.05% (0.046 0.05)
4-2 @ 1.74% (0.046 0.05)
4-0 @ 1.21% (0.023 0.02)
4-3 @ 0.99% (0.03 0.03)
Other @ 3.07%
Total : 39.36%
1-1 @ 9.54% (-0.102 -0.1)
2-2 @ 7% (0.03 0.03)
0-0 @ 3.25% (-0.084 -0.08)
3-3 @ 2.28% (0.043 0.04)
Other @ 0.47%
Total : 22.54%
1-2 @ 8.1% (-0.055999999999999 -0.06)
0-1 @ 5.52% (-0.122 -0.12)
0-2 @ 4.69% (-0.085 -0.09)
1-3 @ 4.58% (-0.014 -0.01)
2-3 @ 3.96% (0.032 0.03)
0-3 @ 2.65% (-0.038 -0.04)
1-4 @ 1.95% (0.00099999999999989 0)
2-4 @ 1.68% (0.02 0.02)
0-4 @ 1.13% (-0.012 -0.01)
3-4 @ 0.97% (0.022 0.02)
Other @ 2.87%
Total : 38.1%

How you voted: Crawley vs Swindon

Crawley Town
42.9%
Draw
14.3%
Swindon Town
42.9%
7
Head to Head
Aug 26, 2023 3pm
Gameweek 5
Swindon
6-0
Crawley
Kemp (34'), Young (47', 51', 60', 71'), Shade (90+9')

Williams (88')
May 8, 2023 12.30pm
Gameweek 46
Swindon
2-1
Crawley
Austin (41'), Cain (43')
Telford (62' pen.)
Dec 3, 2022 3pm
Gameweek 20
Crawley
2-0
Swindon
Tsaroulla (79'), Powell (83')
Mar 19, 2022 3pm
Gameweek 38
Crawley
3-1
Swindon
Appiah (29'), Nichols (72'), Hutchinson (90+1')
Francillette (59'), Marshall (84')
Davison (50')
Williams (56'), Odimayo (65')
Feb 1, 2022 7.45pm
Gameweek 16
Swindon
1-1
Crawley
Gladwin (90+2')
Lyden (81'), McKirdy (83')
Powell (41' pen.)
Nichols (54'), Tsaroulla (65'), Powell (77')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
CStockport CountyStockport452711795464992
4MK Dons452381479641577
5Doncaster RoversDoncaster45217177166570
6Crewe AlexandraCrewe451913136864470
7BarrowBarrow451814136155668
8Crawley TownCrawley45207187167467
9Bradford CityBradford451812155758-166
10Walsall451811166868065
11Gillingham45189184455-1163
12AFC Wimbledon451614155950962
13Harrogate TownHarrogate451711175867-962
14Notts County45187208985461
15Tranmere RoversTranmere45176226666057
16Morecambe45179196478-1457
17Newport CountyNewport45167226172-1155
18Accrington StanleyAccrington45159215970-1154
19Swindon TownSwindon451411207480-653
20Salford City451311216480-1650
21Grimsby Town451116185772-1549
22Colchester UnitedColchester451111235879-2144
23Sutton UnitedSutton45914225580-2541
RForest Green RoversForest Green45109264378-3539


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