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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Crawley Town win with a probability of 39.36%. A win for Swindon Town had a probability of 38.1% and a draw had a probability of 22.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Crawley Town win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (5.62%) and 2-0 (4.85%). The likeliest Swindon Town win was 1-2 (8.1%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.54%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Crawley Town would win this match.
Result | ||
Crawley Town | Draw | Swindon Town |
39.36% ( 0.31) | 22.54% ( -0.1) | 38.1% ( -0.22) |
Both teams to score 67.19% ( 0.38) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
66.54% ( 0.49) | 33.46% ( -0.49) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
44.74% ( 0.55) | 55.25% ( -0.56) |
Crawley Town Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
82.24% ( 0.34) | 17.75% ( -0.35) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
51.56% ( 0.59) | 48.44% ( -0.59) |
Swindon Town Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
81.69% ( 0.11) | 18.3% ( -0.12) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
50.61% ( 0.2) | 49.38% ( -0.2) |
Score Analysis |
Crawley Town | Draw | Swindon Town |
2-1 @ 8.24% ( 0) 1-0 @ 5.62% ( -0.08) 2-0 @ 4.85% ( -0.02) 3-1 @ 4.75% ( 0.05) 3-2 @ 4.03% ( 0.06) 3-0 @ 2.8% ( 0.02) 4-1 @ 2.05% ( 0.05) 4-2 @ 1.74% ( 0.05) 4-0 @ 1.21% ( 0.02) 4-3 @ 0.99% ( 0.03) Other @ 3.07% Total : 39.36% | 1-1 @ 9.54% ( -0.1) 2-2 @ 7% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 3.25% ( -0.08) 3-3 @ 2.28% ( 0.04) Other @ 0.47% Total : 22.54% | 1-2 @ 8.1% ( -0.06) 0-1 @ 5.52% ( -0.12) 0-2 @ 4.69% ( -0.09) 1-3 @ 4.58% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 3.96% ( 0.03) 0-3 @ 2.65% ( -0.04) 1-4 @ 1.95% ( 0) 2-4 @ 1.68% ( 0.02) 0-4 @ 1.13% ( -0.01) 3-4 @ 0.97% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.87% Total : 38.1% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Stockport CountyStockport | 45 | 27 | 11 | 7 | 95 | 46 | 49 | 92 |
P | Mansfield TownMansfield | 45 | 24 | 13 | 8 | 89 | 46 | 43 | 85 |
P | Wrexham | 45 | 25 | 10 | 10 | 87 | 51 | 36 | 85 |
4 | MK Dons | 45 | 23 | 8 | 14 | 79 | 64 | 15 | 77 |
5 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 45 | 21 | 7 | 17 | 71 | 66 | 5 | 70 |
6 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 45 | 19 | 13 | 13 | 68 | 64 | 4 | 70 |
7 | BarrowBarrow | 45 | 18 | 14 | 13 | 61 | 55 | 6 | 68 |
8 | Crawley TownCrawley | 45 | 20 | 7 | 18 | 71 | 67 | 4 | 67 |
9 | Bradford CityBradford | 45 | 18 | 12 | 15 | 57 | 58 | -1 | 66 |
10 | Walsall | 45 | 18 | 11 | 16 | 68 | 68 | 0 | 65 |
11 | Gillingham | 45 | 18 | 9 | 18 | 44 | 55 | -11 | 63 |
12 | AFC Wimbledon | 45 | 16 | 14 | 15 | 59 | 50 | 9 | 62 |
13 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 45 | 17 | 11 | 17 | 58 | 67 | -9 | 62 |
14 | Notts County | 45 | 18 | 7 | 20 | 89 | 85 | 4 | 61 |
15 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 45 | 17 | 6 | 22 | 66 | 66 | 0 | 57 |
16 | Morecambe | 45 | 17 | 9 | 19 | 64 | 78 | -14 | 57 |
17 | Newport CountyNewport | 45 | 16 | 7 | 22 | 61 | 72 | -11 | 55 |
18 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 45 | 15 | 9 | 21 | 59 | 70 | -11 | 54 |
19 | Swindon TownSwindon | 45 | 14 | 11 | 20 | 74 | 80 | -6 | 53 |
20 | Salford City | 45 | 13 | 11 | 21 | 64 | 80 | -16 | 50 |
21 | Grimsby Town | 45 | 11 | 16 | 18 | 57 | 72 | -15 | 49 |
22 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 45 | 11 | 11 | 23 | 58 | 79 | -21 | 44 |
23 | Sutton UnitedSutton | 45 | 9 | 14 | 22 | 55 | 80 | -25 | 41 |
R | Forest Green RoversForest Green | 45 | 10 | 9 | 26 | 43 | 78 | -35 | 39 |
> League Two Full Table |