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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Swindon Town win with a probability of 52.84%. A draw had a probability of 24.3% and a win for Crawley Town had a probability of 22.82%.
The most likely scoreline for a Swindon Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.65%) and 2-0 (9.59%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.57%), while for a Crawley Town win it was 0-1 (6.95%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Swindon Town would win this match.
Result | ||
Swindon Town | Draw | Crawley Town |
52.84% ( -0.01) | 24.34% ( -0.01) | 22.82% ( 0.02) |
Both teams to score 51.47% ( 0.04) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
49.98% ( 0.04) | 50.01% ( -0.04) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
28% ( 0.04) | 71.99% ( -0.04) |
Swindon Town Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
81.12% ( 0.01) | 18.88% ( -0.01) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
49.64% ( 0.02) | 50.36% ( -0.02) |
Crawley Town Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
63.45% ( 0.04) | 36.55% ( -0.04) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
26.66% ( 0.04) | 73.34% ( -0.04) |
Score Analysis |
Swindon Town | Draw | Crawley Town |
1-0 @ 11.5% ( -0.02) 2-1 @ 9.65% ( 0) 2-0 @ 9.59% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 5.36% ( 0) 3-0 @ 5.33% ( -0) 3-2 @ 2.7% ( 0) 4-1 @ 2.24% ( 0) 4-0 @ 2.22% ( -0) 4-2 @ 1.13% ( 0) Other @ 3.12% Total : 52.83% | 1-1 @ 11.57% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 6.9% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 4.86% ( 0.01) 3-3 @ 0.91% ( 0) Other @ 0.1% Total : 24.34% | 0-1 @ 6.95% ( -0) 1-2 @ 5.83% ( 0) 0-2 @ 3.5% ( 0) 1-3 @ 1.96% ( 0) 2-3 @ 1.63% ( 0) 0-3 @ 1.17% ( 0) Other @ 1.79% Total : 22.82% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Stockport CountyStockport | 45 | 27 | 11 | 7 | 95 | 46 | 49 | 92 |
P | Mansfield TownMansfield | 45 | 24 | 13 | 8 | 89 | 46 | 43 | 85 |
P | Wrexham | 45 | 25 | 10 | 10 | 87 | 51 | 36 | 85 |
4 | MK Dons | 45 | 23 | 8 | 14 | 79 | 64 | 15 | 77 |
5 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 45 | 21 | 7 | 17 | 71 | 66 | 5 | 70 |
6 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 45 | 19 | 13 | 13 | 68 | 64 | 4 | 70 |
7 | BarrowBarrow | 45 | 18 | 14 | 13 | 61 | 55 | 6 | 68 |
8 | Crawley TownCrawley | 45 | 20 | 7 | 18 | 71 | 67 | 4 | 67 |
9 | Bradford CityBradford | 45 | 18 | 12 | 15 | 57 | 58 | -1 | 66 |
10 | Walsall | 45 | 18 | 11 | 16 | 68 | 68 | 0 | 65 |
11 | Gillingham | 45 | 18 | 9 | 18 | 44 | 55 | -11 | 63 |
12 | AFC Wimbledon | 45 | 16 | 14 | 15 | 59 | 50 | 9 | 62 |
13 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 45 | 17 | 11 | 17 | 58 | 67 | -9 | 62 |
14 | Notts County | 45 | 18 | 7 | 20 | 89 | 85 | 4 | 61 |
15 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 45 | 17 | 6 | 22 | 66 | 66 | 0 | 57 |
16 | Morecambe | 45 | 17 | 9 | 19 | 64 | 78 | -14 | 57 |
17 | Newport CountyNewport | 45 | 16 | 7 | 22 | 61 | 72 | -11 | 55 |
18 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 45 | 15 | 9 | 21 | 59 | 70 | -11 | 54 |
19 | Swindon TownSwindon | 45 | 14 | 11 | 20 | 74 | 80 | -6 | 53 |
20 | Salford City | 45 | 13 | 11 | 21 | 64 | 80 | -16 | 50 |
21 | Grimsby Town | 45 | 11 | 16 | 18 | 57 | 72 | -15 | 49 |
22 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 45 | 11 | 11 | 23 | 58 | 79 | -21 | 44 |
23 | Sutton UnitedSutton | 45 | 9 | 14 | 22 | 55 | 80 | -25 | 41 |
R | Forest Green RoversForest Green | 45 | 10 | 9 | 26 | 43 | 78 | -35 | 39 |
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