FA Cup

FA Cup | Fourth Round

Feb 8, 2025 at 5.45pm UK

St. Andrew's Stadium

Birmingham
2 - 3
Newcastle

Laird (1'), Iwata (40')
Anderson (45+3'), Stansfield (66'), Klarer (71'), Thor Willumsson (74')

FT(HT: 2-2)

Willock (22', 82'), Wilson (26')
Burn (14'), Osula (45+3'), Willock (68')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's FA Cup clash between Birmingham City and Newcastle United, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Birmingham City

All competitions

FA Cup

Last Game: Stevenage 0-1 Birmingham
Tuesday, February 4 at 7.45pm in EFL Trophy

Goals
for

Newcastle United

All competitions

FA Cup

Last Game: Newcastle 2-0 Arsenal
Wednesday, February 5 at 8pm in EFL Cup

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Birmingham City win with a probability of 49.28%. A win for Newcastle United had a probability of 26.49% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Birmingham City win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.55%) and 2-0 (8.23%). The likeliest Newcastle United win was 0-1 (6.85%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.43%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Newcastle United would win this match.

Result
Birmingham City	Draw	Newcastle United
49.28% ( 0.27)	24.22% ( -0.08)	26.49% ( -0.2)

Both teams to score 55.7% (

0.07)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

53.73% (

0.17)

46.26% (

-0.18)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

31.44% (

0.16)

68.55% (

-0.17)

Birmingham City Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

81.16% (

0.17)

18.84% (

-0.18)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

49.71% (

0.29)

50.28% (

-0.3)

Newcastle United Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

68.63% (

-0.07)

31.37% (

0.06)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

32.26% (

-0.08)

67.74% (

0.07)

Score Analysis

Birmingham City 49.28%

Newcastle United 26.5%

Draw 24.22%

Birmingham City	Draw	Newcastle United
1-0 @ 9.86% ( -0.02) 2-1 @ 9.55% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 8.23% ( 0.03) 3-1 @ 5.31% ( 0.04) 3-0 @ 4.58% ( 0.04) 3-2 @ 3.08% ( 0.02) 4-1 @ 2.22% ( 0.03) 4-0 @ 1.91% ( 0.03) 4-2 @ 1.29% ( 0.01) Other @ 3.25% Total : 49.28%	1-1 @ 11.43% ( -0.04) 0-0 @ 5.91% ( -0.04) 2-2 @ 5.53% ( 0) 3-3 @ 1.19% ( 0) Other @ 0.16% Total : 24.22%	0-1 @ 6.85% ( -0.06) 1-2 @ 6.63% ( -0.04) 0-2 @ 3.97% ( -0.04) 1-3 @ 2.56% ( -0.02) 2-3 @ 2.14% ( -0) 0-3 @ 1.54% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.81% Total : 26.5%