Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Birmingham City win with a probability of 52.84%. A draw had a probability of 23.8% and a win for Swindon Town had a probability of 23.33%.
The most likely scoreline for a Birmingham City win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.73%) and 0-2 (9.17%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.3%), while for a Swindon Town win it was 1-0 (6.57%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Birmingham City would win this match.