Premier League

Premier League | Gameweek 23

Jan 25, 2025 at 3pm UK

St. Mary's Stadium

Southampton
1 - 3
Newcastle

Bednarek (10', 10')
Fernandes (21'), Fernandes (21')

FT(HT: 2-4)

Isak (26' pen., 26' pen., 30', 30'), Tonali (51')

The Match

Form, Standings, Stats

Southampton

All competitions

Premier League

Last Game: Nott'm Forest 3-2 Southampton
Sunday, January 19 at 2pm in Premier League

Goals
for

Newcastle United

All competitions

Premier League

Last Game: Newcastle 1-4 Bournemouth
Saturday, January 18 at 12.30pm in Premier League

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newcastle United win with a probability of 48.82%. A win for Southampton had a probability of 28.81% and a draw had a probability of 22.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Newcastle United win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.98%) and 0-2 (6.59%). The likeliest Southampton win was 2-1 (6.93%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.84%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 5.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Newcastle United would win this match.

Result
Southampton	Draw	Newcastle United
28.81% ( 0.09)	22.38% ( 0.02)	48.82% ( -0.11)

Both teams to score 64.13% (

0.01)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

64.01% (

-0.02)

35.99% (

0.02)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

41.91% (

-0.03)

58.09% (

0.02)

Southampton Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

75.57% (

0.05)

24.43% (

-0.05)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

41.14% (

0.07)

58.86% (

-0.07)

Newcastle United Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

84.87% (

-0.05)

15.13% (

0.05)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

56.29% (

-0.09)

43.71% (

0.09)

Score Analysis

Southampton 28.81%

Newcastle United 48.82%

Draw 22.38%

Southampton	Draw	Newcastle United
2-1 @ 6.93% ( 0.02) 1-0 @ 5.21% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 3.67% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 3.26% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 3.08% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 1.73% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 1.15% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 1.08% ( 0) Other @ 2.7% Total : 28.81%	1-1 @ 9.84% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 6.55% ( 0) 0-0 @ 3.7% ( 0) 3-3 @ 1.94% ( 0) Other @ 0.36% Total : 22.38%	1-2 @ 9.29% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 6.98% ( -0) 0-2 @ 6.59% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 5.85% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 4.15% ( -0.02) 2-3 @ 4.12% ( -0) 1-4 @ 2.76% ( -0.01) 0-4 @ 1.96% ( -0.01) 2-4 @ 1.95% ( -0) 1-5 @ 1.04% ( -0.01) 3-4 @ 0.91% ( -0) Other @ 3.22% Total : 48.82%