Premier League

Premier League | Gameweek 21

Jan 16, 2025 at 8pm UK

Old Trafford

Man Utd
3 - 1
Southampton

Diallo (82', 90', 90+4')
Martinez (52')

FT(HT: 0-1)

Ugarte (43' og.)
Fernandes (45+1'), Obling (45'), Downes (79')

Reaction

Joshua Zirkzee of Manchester United on January 16, 2025

Joshua Zirkzee ban decision confirmed after lewd gesture in Man Utd win against Southampton

Manchester United striker Joshua Zirkzee escapes a ban by the FA following a controversial celebration during the Red Devils match against Southampton.

Jan 18, 14:34

Manchester United's Amad Diallo on January 16, 2025

Amad Diallo joins Man United legends in Premier League history with late treble against Southampton

Manchester United forward Amad Diallo becomes just the third player in the history of the Premier League to score three times in the final 10 minutes of a match.

Jan 16, 22:48

The Match

Form, Standings, Stats

Manchester United

All competitions

Premier League

Last Game: Arsenal 1-1 Man Utd (3-5 pen.)
Sunday, January 12 at 3pm in FA Cup

Goals
for

Southampton

All competitions

Premier League

Last Game: Southampton 3-0 Swansea
Sunday, January 12 at 4.30pm in FA Cup

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester United win with a probability of 64.27%. A draw had a probability of 18.8% and a win for Southampton had a probability of 16.94%.

The most likely scoreline for a Manchester United win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.68%) and 1-0 (7.49%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.35%), while for a Southampton win it was 1-2 (4.65%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 7.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 3-1 win for Manchester United in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Manchester United.

Result
Manchester United	Draw	Southampton
64.27% ( -0.35)	18.79% ( 0.03)	16.94% ( 0.33)

Both teams to score 60.57% (

0.63)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

66.65% (

0.48)

33.35% (

-0.48)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

44.87% (

0.55)

55.13% (

-0.54)

Manchester United Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

90.15% (

0.05)

9.84% (

-0.05)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

67.33% (

0.12)

32.67% (

-0.11)

Southampton Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

67.19% (

0.67)

32.81% (

-0.66)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

30.62% (

0.73)

69.37% (

-0.73)

Score Analysis

Manchester United 64.27%

Southampton 16.94%

Draw 18.79%

Manchester United	Draw	Southampton
2-1 @ 9.67% ( -0.03) 2-0 @ 8.68% ( -0.18) 1-0 @ 7.49% ( -0.17) 3-1 @ 7.47% ( -0) 3-0 @ 6.71% ( -0.13) 4-1 @ 4.33% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 4.17% ( 0.07) 4-0 @ 3.89% ( -0.06) 4-2 @ 2.41% ( 0.05) 5-1 @ 2.01% ( 0.01) 5-0 @ 1.8% ( -0.03) 5-2 @ 1.12% ( 0.02) Other @ 4.52% Total : 64.27%	1-1 @ 8.35% ( -0.04) 2-2 @ 5.39% ( 0.08) 0-0 @ 3.23% ( -0.08) 3-3 @ 1.55% ( 0.05) Other @ 0.28% Total : 18.79%	1-2 @ 4.65% ( 0.06) 0-1 @ 3.6% ( -0.02) 0-2 @ 2.01% ( 0.02) 2-3 @ 2% ( 0.07) 1-3 @ 1.73% ( 0.05) Other @ 2.95% Total : 16.94%