Premier League

Premier League | Gameweek 15

Dec 7, 2024 at 3pm UK

Villa Park

Aston Villa
1 - 0
Southampton

Duran (24')
Rogers (90+6')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Downes (69'), Wood (78'), Amo-Ameyaw (85')

The Match

Form, Standings, Stats

Aston Villa

All competitions

Premier League

Last Game: Aston Villa 3-1 Brentford
Wednesday, December 4 at 8.15pm in Premier League

Goals
for

Southampton

All competitions

Premier League

Last Game: Southampton 1-5 Chelsea
Wednesday, December 4 at 7.30pm in Premier League

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aston Villa win with a probability of 58.03%. A win for Southampton had a probability of 21.26% and a draw had a probability of 20.7%.

The most likely scoreline for an Aston Villa win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.07%) and 1-0 (7.66%). The likeliest Southampton win was 1-2 (5.58%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.24%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 7.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Aston Villa would win this match.

Result
Aston Villa	Draw	Southampton
58.03% ( 2.87)	20.72% ( -0.88)	21.26% ( -1.99)

Both teams to score 61.58% (

0.33)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

64.36% (

1.69)

35.64% (

-1.68)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

42.3% (

1.84)

57.7% (

-1.83)

Aston Villa Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

87.85% (

1.39)

12.15% (

-1.39)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

62.24% (

2.85)

37.76% (

-2.85)

Southampton Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

70.1% (

-0.75)

29.9% (

0.75)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

34% (

-0.91)

66% (

0.92)

Score Analysis

Aston Villa 58.03%

Southampton 21.26%

Draw 20.72%

Aston Villa	Draw	Southampton
2-1 @ 9.74% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 8.07% ( 0.18) 1-0 @ 7.66% ( -0.23) 3-1 @ 6.85% ( 0.36) 3-0 @ 5.67% ( 0.41) 3-2 @ 4.13% ( 0.14) 4-1 @ 3.61% ( 0.37) 4-0 @ 2.99% ( 0.36) 4-2 @ 2.18% ( 0.18) 5-1 @ 1.52% ( 0.23) 5-0 @ 1.26% ( 0.21) 5-2 @ 0.92% ( 0.12) Other @ 3.43% Total : 58.03%	1-1 @ 9.24% ( -0.48) 2-2 @ 5.88% ( -0.11) 0-0 @ 3.63% ( -0.31) 3-3 @ 1.66% ( 0.02) Other @ 0.29% Total : 20.72%	1-2 @ 5.58% ( -0.42) 0-1 @ 4.39% ( -0.48) 0-2 @ 2.65% ( -0.35) 2-3 @ 2.37% ( -0.1) 1-3 @ 2.25% ( -0.22) 0-3 @ 1.07% ( -0.17) Other @ 2.97% Total : 21.26%