Premier League
Gameweek
15
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-
Jhon Duran
24'
-
Morgan Rogers
90'+6'
-
Flynn Downes
69'
-
Nathan Wood
78'
-
Sam Amo-Ameyaw
85'
Aston Villa vs Southampton - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings
The match
Result
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Team News
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Match Preview
/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2F24%2F49%2Fmorgan-rogers_1.jpg)
Predicted Lineups
/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2F24%2F39%2Funai-emery.jpg)
Form, Standings, Stats
Data analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aston Villa win with a probability of 58.03%. A win for Southampton had a probability of 21.26% and a draw had a probability of 20.7%.
The most likely scoreline for an Aston Villa win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.07%) and 1-0 (7.66%). The likeliest Southampton win was 1-2 (5.58%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.24%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 7.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Aston Villa would win this match.
Result
Aston Villa
58.03%
▲
(+2.87)
Draw
20.72%
▼
(-0.88)
Southampton
21.26%
▼
(-1.99)
Both Teams to Score:
61.58%
▲
(+0.33)
Goals
Over 2.5
64.36%
▲
(+1.69)
Under 2.5
35.64%
▼
(-1.68)
Over 3.5
42.3%
▲
(+1.84)
Under 3.5
57.7%
▼
(-1.84)
Over 4.5
24.02%
▲
(+1.51)
Under 4.5
75.98%
▼
(-1.50)
Aston Villa Goals
Over 0.5
87.85%
▲
(+1.40)
Under 0.5
12.15%
▼
(-1.39)
Over 1.5
62.24%
▲
(+2.86)
Under 1.5
37.76%
▼
(-2.85)
Southampton Goals
Over 0.5
70.1%
▼
(-0.75)
Under 0.5
29.9%
▲
(+0.75)
Over 1.5
34%
▼
(-0.92)
Under 1.5
66%
▲
(+0.92)
Score analysis
Aston Villa
58.03%
Draw
20.72%
Southampton
21.26%
Aston Villa
2-1
@
9.74%
▲
(+0.02)
2-0 @ 8.07% ▲ (+0.19)
1-0 @ 7.66% ▼ (-0.24)
3-1 @ 6.85% ▲ (+0.37)
3-0 @ 5.67% ▲ (+0.42)
3-2 @ 4.13% ▲ (+0.14)
4-1 @ 3.61% ▲ (+0.37)
4-0 @ 2.99% ▲ (+0.36)
4-2 @ 2.18% ▲ (+0.18)
5-1 @ 1.52% ▲ (+0.23)
5-0 @ 1.26% ▲ (+0.21)
Other @ 4.35%
Total : 58.03%
2-0 @ 8.07% ▲ (+0.19)
1-0 @ 7.66% ▼ (-0.24)
3-1 @ 6.85% ▲ (+0.37)
3-0 @ 5.67% ▲ (+0.42)
3-2 @ 4.13% ▲ (+0.14)
4-1 @ 3.61% ▲ (+0.37)
4-0 @ 2.99% ▲ (+0.36)
4-2 @ 2.18% ▲ (+0.18)
5-1 @ 1.52% ▲ (+0.23)
5-0 @ 1.26% ▲ (+0.21)
Other @ 4.35%
Total : 58.03%
Draw
1-1
@
9.24%
▼
(-0.49)
2-2 @ 5.88% ▼ (-0.12)
0-0 @ 3.63% ▼ (-0.32)
3-3 @ 1.66% ▲ (+0.03)
Other @ 0.29%
Total : 20.72%
2-2 @ 5.88% ▼ (-0.12)
0-0 @ 3.63% ▼ (-0.32)
3-3 @ 1.66% ▲ (+0.03)
Other @ 0.29%
Total : 20.72%
Southampton
1-2
@
5.58%
▼
(-0.42)
0-1 @ 4.39% ▼ (-0.48)
0-2 @ 2.65% ▼ (-0.36)
2-3 @ 2.37% ▼ (-0.10)
1-3 @ 2.25% ▼ (-0.22)
0-3 @ 1.07% ▼ (-0.17)
Other @ 2.97%
Total : 21.26%
0-1 @ 4.39% ▼ (-0.48)
0-2 @ 2.65% ▼ (-0.36)
2-3 @ 2.37% ▼ (-0.10)
1-3 @ 2.25% ▼ (-0.22)
0-3 @ 1.07% ▼ (-0.17)
Other @ 2.97%
Total : 21.26%
Head to Head
Premier League
Gameweek
21
-
Ollie Watkins
77'
Premier League
Gameweek
8
-
Jacob Ramsey
41'
Premier League
Gameweek
28
-
Ollie Watkins
9'
-
Douglas Luiz
44'
-
Philippe Coutinho
52'
-
Danny Ings
54'
-
Ollie Watkins
74'
-
Oriol Romeu
68'
Premier League
Gameweek
11
-
Adam Armstrong
3'
-
Oriol Romeu
62'
-
Mohammed Salisu
90'+1'
-
Anwar El Ghazi
11'
-
Axel Tuanzebe
65'
Premier League
Gameweek
21
-
James Ward-Prowse
53'
-
Ross Barkley
41'
Premier League
Gameweek
7
-
Matty Cash
43'
-
Tyrone Mings
62'
-
Ollie Watkins
90'+3'
-
Jack Grealish
90'+7'
-
James Ward-Prowse
12'
-
Jannik Vestergaard
20'
-
James Ward-Prowse
33'
-
James Ward-Prowse
45'
-
Danny Ings
58'
-
Ibrahima Diallo
90'+2'
Form Data
Build-up
Predicted Lineups
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