Premier League

Premier League | Gameweek 18

Dec 26, 2024 at 3pm UK

St. James' Park

Newcastle
3 - 0
Aston Villa

Gordon (2'), Isak (59'), Joelinton (90+1')
Trippier (23'), Joelinton (45')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Cash (14')
Duran (32')

Reaction

Aston Villa head coach Unai Emery in December 2024.

Aston Villa forward Jhon Duran deserved Newcastle United red card, claims former Premier League official

Former Premier League official Dermot Gallagher claims that Aston Villa forward Jhon Duran was deservedly sent off against Newcastle United on Boxing Day.

Dec 27, 13:00

The Match

Form, Standings, Stats

Newcastle United

All competitions

Premier League

Last Game: Ipswich 0-4 Newcastle
Saturday, December 21 at 3pm in Premier League

Goals
for

Aston Villa

All competitions

Premier League

Last Game: Aston Villa 2-1 Man City
Saturday, December 21 at 12.30pm in Premier League

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newcastle United win with a probability of 51.27%. A win for Aston Villa had a probability of 25.73% and a draw had a probability of 23%.

The most likely scoreline for a Newcastle United win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.67%) and 2-0 (7.88%). The likeliest Aston Villa win was 1-2 (6.51%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.62%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 4.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Newcastle United would win this match.

Result
Newcastle United	Draw	Aston Villa
51.27% ( 0.18)	22.99% ( -0.05)	25.73% ( -0.14)

Both teams to score 59.15% (

0.05)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

58.63% (

0.12)

41.37% (

-0.13)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

36.23% (

0.12)

63.76% (

-0.13)

Newcastle United Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

83.75% (

0.11)

16.24% (

-0.11)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

54.24% (

0.2)

45.76% (

-0.2)

Aston Villa Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

70.62% (

-0.04)

29.37% (

0.04)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

34.64% (

-0.05)

65.35% (

0.04)

Score Analysis

Newcastle United 51.27%

Aston Villa 25.73%

Draw 22.99%

Newcastle United	Draw	Aston Villa
2-1 @ 9.65% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 8.67% ( -0.02) 2-0 @ 7.88% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 5.85% ( 0.03) 3-0 @ 4.77% ( 0.03) 3-2 @ 3.58% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 2.66% ( 0.02) 4-0 @ 2.17% ( 0.02) 4-2 @ 1.63% ( 0.01) 5-1 @ 0.97% ( 0.01) Other @ 3.44% Total : 51.27%	1-1 @ 10.62% ( -0.03) 2-2 @ 5.91% 0-0 @ 4.77% ( -0.03) 3-3 @ 1.46% ( 0) Other @ 0.22% Total : 22.99%	1-2 @ 6.51% ( -0.03) 0-1 @ 5.84% ( -0.04) 0-2 @ 3.58% ( -0.03) 1-3 @ 2.66% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 2.42% ( -0) 0-3 @ 1.46% ( -0.01) Other @ 3.26% Total : 25.73%