Euro 2024

Euro Champ Qualifying | Group Stage

Nov 20, 2023 at 7.45pm UK

Stadio Olimpico di Serravalle

San Marino
1 - 2
Finland

Berardi (90+7' pen.)
Vitaioli (24'), Tosi (56'), Capicchioni (68'), Battistini (90+1'), Zafferani (90+4')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Soiri (50', 58')
Galvez (35'), Jensen (90+6')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Monday's Euro Champ Qualifying clash between San Marino and Finland, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

San Marino

All competitions

Last Game: Kazakhstan 3-1 San Marino
Friday, November 17 at 3pm in Euro Champ Qualifying

Current Group H Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Denmark	9	11	22
2	Slovenia	9	10	19
3	Kazakhstan	9	5	18
4	Finland	9	7	15
5	Northern Ireland	9	-6	6
6	San Marino	9	-27	0

Finland

All competitions

Last Game: Finland 4-0 N. Ireland
Friday, November 17 at 5pm in Euro Champ Qualifying

Current Group H Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Denmark	9	11	22
2	Slovenia	9	10	19
3	Kazakhstan	9	5	18
4	Finland	9	7	15
5	Northern Ireland	9	-6	6
6	San Marino	9	-27	0

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Finland win with a probability of 93.79%. A draw had a probability of 4.9% and a win for San Marino had a probability of 1.28%.

The most likely scoreline for a Finland win was 0-3 with a probability of 14.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-4 (13.7%) and 0-2 (12.3%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (2.28%), while for a San Marino win it was 1-0 (0.62%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 4.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Finland would win this match.

Result
San Marino	Draw	Finland
1.28% ( 0.12)	4.93% ( 0.11)	93.79% ( -0.22)

Both teams to score 28.01% (

2.11)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

76.12% (

0.83)

23.88% (

-0.83)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

56.55% (

1.1)

43.44% (

-1.1)

San Marino Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

28.75% (

2.15)

71.24% (

-2.15)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

4.6% (

0.7)

95.4% (

-0.7)

Finland Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

97.41% (

0.07)

2.58% (

-0.07)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

87.97% (

0.25)

12.03% (

-0.25)

Score Analysis

San Marino 1.28%

Finland 93.78%

Draw 4.93%

San Marino	Draw	Finland
Other @ 1.28% Total : 1.28%	1-1 @ 2.28% ( 0.1) 0-0 @ 1.84% ( -0.11) Other @ 0.81% Total : 4.93%	0-3 @ 14.99% ( -0.52) 0-4 @ 13.7% ( -0.37) 0-2 @ 12.3% ( -0.52) 0-5 @ 10.01% ( -0.21) 0-1 @ 6.73% ( -0.34) 0-6 @ 6.11% ( -0.08) 1-3 @ 5.08% ( 0.28) 1-4 @ 4.65% ( 0.29) 1-2 @ 4.17% ( 0.21) 1-5 @ 3.4% ( 0.24) 0-7 @ 3.19% ( -0.02) 1-6 @ 2.07% ( 0.16) 0-8 @ 1.46% ( 0) 1-7 @ 1.08% ( 0.09) Other @ 4.85% Total : 93.78%