Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a LDU Quito win with a probability of 49.06%. A win for Defensa y Justicia had a probability of 26.36% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a LDU Quito win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.51%) and 2-0 (8.42%). The likeliest Defensa y Justicia win was 0-1 (7.14%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.65%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 4.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that LDU Quito would win this match.

Result
LDU Quito	Draw	Defensa y Justicia
49.06% ( 0.32)	24.58% ( -0.48)	26.36% ( 0.16)

Both teams to score 54.43% (

1.66)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

52.11% (

2.11)

47.89% (

-2.11)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

29.93% (

1.92)

70.07% (

-1.91)

LDU Quito Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

80.44% (

0.98)

19.56% (

-0.98)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

48.52% (

1.57)

51.48% (

-1.57)

Defensa y Justicia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

67.67% (

1.25)

32.33% (

-1.25)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

31.16% (

1.39)

68.84% (

-1.39)

Score Analysis

LDU Quito 49.06%

Defensa y Justicia 26.36%

Draw 24.58%

LDU Quito	Draw	Defensa y Justicia
1-0 @ 10.32% ( -0.59) 2-1 @ 9.51% ( 0.08) 2-0 @ 8.42% ( -0.22) 3-1 @ 5.17% ( 0.19) 3-0 @ 4.58% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 2.92% ( 0.2) 4-1 @ 2.11% ( 0.14) 4-0 @ 1.87% ( 0.06) 4-2 @ 1.19% ( 0.12) Other @ 2.98% Total : 49.06%	1-1 @ 11.65% ( -0.26) 0-0 @ 6.33% ( -0.57) 2-2 @ 5.37% ( 0.22) 3-3 @ 1.1% ( 0.11) Other @ 0.14% Total : 24.58%	0-1 @ 7.14% ( -0.39) 1-2 @ 6.58% ( 0.08) 0-2 @ 4.03% ( -0.08) 1-3 @ 2.48% ( 0.11) 2-3 @ 2.02% ( 0.15) 0-3 @ 1.52% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.6% Total : 26.36%