Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Defensa y Justicia win with a probability of 38.92%. A win for Tigre had a probability of 33% and a draw had a probability of 28.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Defensa y Justicia win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.07%) and 2-0 (7.3%). The likeliest Tigre win was 0-1 (10.74%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.16%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Defensa y Justicia would win this match.