Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Tigre win with a probability of 43.1%. A draw had a probability of 29.7% and a win for San Lorenzo had a probability of 27.19%.
The most likely scoreline for a Tigre win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.93%) and 2-1 (7.87%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.21%), while for a San Lorenzo win it was 0-1 (11.09%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Tigre would win this match.