San Lorenzo
Copa Sudamericana | Round of 32 | 2nd Leg
Jul 20, 2023 at 1am UK
Estadio Pedro Bidegain
Medellin

San Lorenzo
2 - 0
Medellin

Bareiro (25' pen., 25' pen., 80' pen., 80' pen.)
Maroni (19'), Bareiro (33'), Elias (56')
FT(HT: 2-0)

Monsalve (20'), Palacios (24'), Chaverra (45+1'), Loaiza (83')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Copa Sudamericana clash between San Lorenzo and Independiente Medellin, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

San Lorenzo

All competitions
Copa Sudamericana
Last Game: Belgrano 0-1 San Lorenzo
Sunday, July 16 at 6pm in Argentine Primera Division

Independiente Medellin

All competitions
Copa Sudamericana
Last Game: Medellin 0-1 San Lorenzo
Thursday, July 13 at 1am in Copa Sudamericana

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a San Lorenzo win with a probability of 59.65%. A draw had a probability of 24% and a win for Independiente Medellin had a probability of 16.39%.

The most likely scoreline for a San Lorenzo win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.46%) and 2-1 (9.3%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.09%), while for a Independiente Medellin win it was 0-1 (6.62%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 12.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that San Lorenzo would win this match.

Result
San LorenzoDrawIndependiente Medellin
59.65% (-0.053999999999995 -0.05)23.96% (0.027000000000001 0.03)16.39% (0.030999999999999 0.03)
Both teams to score 42.73% (-0.011000000000003 -0.01)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
43.59% (-0.047999999999995 -0.05)56.41% (0.051000000000002 0.05)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
22.58% (-0.039999999999999 -0.04)77.42% (0.040999999999997 0.04)
San Lorenzo Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
81.29% (-0.037999999999997 -0.04)18.72% (0.041 0.04)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
49.92% (-0.065999999999995 -0.07)50.08% (0.068999999999996 0.07)
Independiente Medellin Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
52.57% (0.012 0.01)47.44% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
17.19% (0.010999999999999 0.01)82.81% (-0.007000000000005 -0.01)
Score Analysis
    San Lorenzo 59.64%
    Independiente Medellin 16.39%
    Draw 23.96%
San LorenzoDrawIndependiente Medellin
1-0 @ 14.87% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
2-0 @ 12.46% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
2-1 @ 9.3% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
3-0 @ 6.96% (-0.013 -0.01)
3-1 @ 5.19% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
4-0 @ 2.92% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
4-1 @ 2.18% (-0.0070000000000001 -0.01)
3-2 @ 1.94% (-0.002 -0)
5-0 @ 0.98% (-0.004 -0)
Other @ 2.85%
Total : 59.64%
1-1 @ 11.09% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
0-0 @ 8.88% (0.017999999999999 0.02)
2-2 @ 3.47%
Other @ 0.52%
Total : 23.96%
0-1 @ 6.62% (0.015 0.01)
1-2 @ 4.14% (0.0049999999999999 0)
0-2 @ 2.47% (0.0059999999999998 0.01)
1-3 @ 1.03% (0.002 0)
Other @ 2.13%
Total : 16.39%

How you voted: San Lorenzo vs Medellin

San Lorenzo
100%
Draw
0.0%
Independiente Medellin
0.0%
9
Head to Head
Jul 13, 2023 1am
Round of 32 1st Leg
Medellin
0-1
San Lorenzo

Moreno (53'), Monsalve (89')
Cetre (31')
Bareiro (67')
Bareiro (25'), Lujan (48'), Braida (58'), Martegani (85'), Campi (90')
> Preview