Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a San Lorenzo win with a probability of 72.45%. A draw had a probability of 18.7% and a win for Estudiantes Merida had a probability of 8.84%.

The most likely scoreline for a San Lorenzo win was 2-0 with a probability of 15.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (15.49%) and 3-0 (10.6%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.44%), while for a Estudiantes Merida win it was 0-1 (4.16%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that San Lorenzo would win this match.

Result
San Lorenzo	Draw	Estudiantes Merida
72.45% ( -0.11)	18.71% ( 0.07)	8.84% ( 0.04)

Both teams to score 36.46% (

-0.03)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

47.44% (

-0.15)

52.56% (

0.16)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

25.78% (

-0.13)

74.22% (

0.13)

San Lorenzo Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

86.83% (

-0.08)

13.17% (

0.08)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

60.12% (

-0.16)

39.88% (

0.16)

Estudiantes Merida Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

41.99% (

-0)

58.01% (

0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

10.4% (

89.6% (

Score Analysis

San Lorenzo 72.43%

Estudiantes Merida 8.84%

Draw 18.71%

San Lorenzo	Draw	Estudiantes Merida
2-0 @ 15.69% 1-0 @ 15.49% ( 0.05) 3-0 @ 10.6% ( -0.03) 2-1 @ 8.55% 3-1 @ 5.78% ( -0.02) 4-0 @ 5.38% ( -0.03) 4-1 @ 2.93% ( -0.02) 5-0 @ 2.18% ( -0.02) 3-2 @ 1.57% ( -0.01) 5-1 @ 1.19% ( -0.01) Other @ 3.09% Total : 72.43%	1-1 @ 8.44% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 7.64% ( 0.05) 2-2 @ 2.33% Other @ 0.31% Total : 18.71%	0-1 @ 4.16% ( 0.02) 1-2 @ 2.3% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 1.13% ( 0.01) Other @ 1.25% Total : 8.84%