Fortaleza
Copa Sudamericana | Group Stage
May 5, 2023 at 1am UK
Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo

Fortaleza
6 - 1
Estudiantes

Pikachu (29' pen.), Welison (43'), Galhardo (72' pen.), Calebe (76'), Moises (86'), Romero (90+1')
FT(HT: 2-2)
Arenas (45+5', 45+5')
Coverage of the Copa Sudamericana Group Stage clash between Fortaleza and Estudiantes Merida.

Form, Standings, Stats

Fortaleza

All competitions
Copa Sudamericana
Last Game: Fortaleza 4-2 Fluminense
Saturday, April 29 at 8.30pm in Brasileiro

Estudiantes Merida

All competitions
Copa Sudamericana
Last Game: Palestino 1-0 Estudiantes
Wednesday, April 19 at 1am in Copa Sudamericana

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fortaleza win with a probability of 74.63%. A draw had a probability of 15.3% and a win for Estudiantes Merida had a probability of 10.04%.

The most likely scoreline for a Fortaleza win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (9.31%) and 2-1 (9.16%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.11%), while for a Estudiantes Merida win it was 1-2 (3.01%). The actual scoreline of 6-1 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Fortaleza would win this match.

Result
FortalezaDrawEstudiantes Merida
74.63% (0.25 0.25)15.33% (-0.148 -0.15)10.04% (-0.101 -0.1)
Both teams to score 52.74% (0.182 0.18)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
66.46% (0.428 0.43)33.54% (-0.426 -0.43)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
44.66% (0.484 0.48)55.35% (-0.483 -0.48)
Fortaleza Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
92.4% (0.15000000000001 0.15)7.6% (-0.15 -0.15)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
72.81% (0.389 0.39)27.19% (-0.389 -0.39)
Estudiantes Merida Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
57.07% (0.104 0.1)42.92% (-0.105 -0.11)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
20.77% (0.09 0.09)79.23% (-0.088999999999999 -0.09)
Score Analysis
    Fortaleza 74.63%
    Estudiantes Merida 10.04%
    Draw 15.33%
FortalezaDrawEstudiantes Merida
2-0 @ 10.83% (-0.07 -0.07)
3-0 @ 9.31% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
2-1 @ 9.16% (-0.036 -0.04)
1-0 @ 8.41% (-0.123 -0.12)
3-1 @ 7.87% (0.029 0.03)
4-0 @ 5.99% (0.051 0.05)
4-1 @ 5.07% (0.058 0.06)
3-2 @ 3.33% (0.022 0.02)
5-0 @ 3.09% (0.05 0.05)
5-1 @ 2.61% (0.049 0.05)
4-2 @ 2.14% (0.031 0.03)
6-0 @ 1.33% (0.032 0.03)
6-1 @ 1.12% (0.03 0.03)
5-2 @ 1.11% (0.024 0.02)
Other @ 3.26%
Total : 74.63%
1-1 @ 7.11% (-0.083 -0.08)
2-2 @ 3.87% (-0.004 -0)
0-0 @ 3.26% (-0.073 -0.07)
3-3 @ 0.94% (0.0089999999999999 0.01)
Other @ 0.14%
Total : 15.33%
1-2 @ 3.01% (-0.026 -0.03)
0-1 @ 2.76% (-0.054 -0.05)
0-2 @ 1.17% (-0.019 -0.02)
2-3 @ 1.09% (0.002 0)
Other @ 2.02%
Total : 10.04%