Copa Sudamericana | Group Stage
Apr 5, 2023 at 1am UK
Estadio Olímpico Metropolitano de Mérida
San Lorenzo

Estudiantes
0 - 1
San Lorenzo

FT(HT: 0-1)
Gattoni (33')
Coverage of the Copa Sudamericana Group Stage clash between Estudiantes Merida and San Lorenzo.

Form, Standings, Stats

Estudiantes Merida

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Last Game: Estudiantes 1-1 Tachira (3-1 pen.)
Thursday, March 9 at 12am in Copa Sudamericana
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San Lorenzo

All competitions
Last Game: San Lorenzo 0-0 Independiente
Saturday, April 1 at 11pm in Argentine Primera Division

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a San Lorenzo win with a probability of 43.55%. A draw had a probability of 29.6% and a win for Estudiantes Merida had a probability of 26.89%.

The most likely scoreline for a San Lorenzo win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.03%) and 1-2 (7.94%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.18%), while for a Estudiantes Merida win it was 1-0 (10.94%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 15% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for San Lorenzo in this match.

Result
Estudiantes MeridaDrawSan Lorenzo
26.89% (-0.514 -0.51)29.56% (-0.757 -0.76)43.55% (1.267 1.27)
Both teams to score 40.93% (1.481 1.48)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
34.57% (1.957 1.96)65.42% (-1.96 -1.96)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
15.81% (1.337 1.34)84.19% (-1.34 -1.34)
Estudiantes Merida Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
58.48% (0.692 0.69)41.52% (-0.695 -0.7)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
21.98% (0.604 0.6)78.02% (-0.605 -0.61)
San Lorenzo Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
70% (1.723 1.72)30% (-1.726 -1.73)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
33.88% (2.026 2.03)66.12% (-2.03 -2.03)
Score Analysis
    Estudiantes Merida 26.88%
    San Lorenzo 43.54%
    Draw 29.56%
Estudiantes MeridaDrawSan Lorenzo
1-0 @ 10.94% (-0.61 -0.61)
2-1 @ 5.79% (0.075 0.08)
2-0 @ 4.81% (-0.168 -0.17)
3-1 @ 1.7% (0.053 0.05)
3-0 @ 1.41% (-0.022 -0.02)
3-2 @ 1.02% (0.079 0.08)
Other @ 1.21%
Total : 26.88%
1-1 @ 13.18% (-0.08 -0.08)
0-0 @ 12.45% (-0.94 -0.94)
2-2 @ 3.49% (0.205 0.21)
Other @ 0.44%
Total : 29.56%
0-1 @ 14.99% (-0.38 -0.38)
0-2 @ 9.03% (0.202 0.2)
1-2 @ 7.94% (0.323 0.32)
0-3 @ 3.62% (0.245 0.25)
1-3 @ 3.19% (0.272 0.27)
2-3 @ 1.4% (0.144 0.14)
0-4 @ 1.09% (0.122 0.12)
1-4 @ 0.96% (0.123 0.12)
Other @ 1.33%
Total : 43.54%