Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a San Lorenzo win with a probability of 43.55%. A draw had a probability of 29.6% and a win for Estudiantes Merida had a probability of 26.89%.
The most likely scoreline for a San Lorenzo win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.03%) and 1-2 (7.94%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.18%), while for a Estudiantes Merida win it was 1-0 (10.94%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 15% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for San Lorenzo in this match.