Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a San Lorenzo win with a probability of 40.35%. A win for Sarmiento had a probability of 30.1% and a draw had a probability of 29.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a San Lorenzo win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.08%) and 1-2 (7.77%). The likeliest Sarmiento win was 1-0 (11.49%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.36%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 13.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for San Lorenzo in this match.