Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lanus win with a probability of 36.68%. A win for San Lorenzo had a probability of 32.47% and a draw had a probability of 30.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lanus win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.32%) and 2-1 (7.02%). The likeliest San Lorenzo win was 0-1 (13.01%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 0-0 (13.58%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Lanus would win this match.