Copa Libertadores | Third Round | 2nd Leg
Mar 16, 2023 at 10pm UK
Estadio General Pablo Rojas
Fortaleza

Cerro Porteno
2 - 1
Fortaleza

Carrizo (38'), Aquino (62')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Guilherme (90+2')
Coverage of the Copa Libertadores Third Round clash between Cerro Porteno and Fortaleza.

Form, Standings, Stats

Cerro Porteno

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Last Game: Fortaleza 0-1 Cerro Porteno
Thursday, March 9 at 10pm in Copa Libertadores
:no data 356|l|156:DIVision:.!d!.:Sport:1:

Fortaleza

All competitions
Copa Libertadores
Last Game: Fortaleza 0-1 Cerro Porteno
Thursday, March 9 at 10pm in Copa Libertadores

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cerro Porteno win with a probability of 39.1%. A win for Fortaleza had a probability of 32.67% and a draw had a probability of 28.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Cerro Porteno win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.05%) and 2-0 (7.39%). The likeliest Fortaleza win was 0-1 (10.82%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.2%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Cerro Porteno would win this match.

Result
Cerro PortenoDrawFortaleza
39.1% (1.898 1.9)28.23% (0.015000000000001 0.02)32.67% (-1.915 -1.92)
Both teams to score 46.75% (-0.352 -0.35)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
40.63% (-0.297 -0.3)59.37% (0.29499999999999 0.29)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
20.24% (-0.23 -0.23)79.76% (0.22799999999999 0.23)
Cerro Porteno Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
70.46% (0.991 0.99)29.53% (-0.995 -1)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
34.44% (1.194 1.19)65.56% (-1.196 -1.2)
Fortaleza Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
66.35% (-1.456 -1.46)33.65% (1.454 1.45)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
29.7% (-1.619 -1.62)70.3% (1.618 1.62)
Score Analysis
    Cerro Porteno 39.1%
    Fortaleza 32.67%
    Draw 28.23%
Cerro PortenoDrawFortaleza
1-0 @ 12.12% (0.46 0.46)
2-1 @ 8.05% (0.209 0.21)
2-0 @ 7.39% (0.473 0.47)
3-1 @ 3.27% (0.172 0.17)
3-0 @ 3.01% (0.269 0.27)
3-2 @ 1.78% (0.025 0.03)
4-1 @ 1% (0.078 0.08)
4-0 @ 0.92% (0.104 0.1)
Other @ 1.56%
Total : 39.1%
1-1 @ 13.2% (-0.010000000000002 -0.01)
0-0 @ 9.94% (0.11 0.11)
2-2 @ 4.38% (-0.06 -0.06)
Other @ 0.7%
Total : 28.23%
0-1 @ 10.82% (-0.31 -0.31)
1-2 @ 7.19% (-0.3 -0.3)
0-2 @ 5.9% (-0.418 -0.42)
1-3 @ 2.61% (-0.22 -0.22)
0-3 @ 2.14% (-0.245 -0.25)
2-3 @ 1.59% (-0.087 -0.09)
Other @ 2.42%
Total : 32.67%

Head to Head
Mar 9, 2023 10pm
Third Round
Fortaleza
0-1
Cerro Porteno

Galhardo (13'), Crispim (69')
Churin (34')
Viera (16'), Jean (70')
Rivas (60')