With a sizeable advantage heading into this leg, you might be inclined to see Palmeiras be a little more passive, but they are deceptively quick on the counter, and you rarely know when this team will attack you with numbers going forward.
We expect El Ciclon to put up a fight, but in the end, this team do not have the quality to trouble a backline, who are among the stingiest in South America.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Palmeiras win with a probability of 60.58%. A draw had a probability of 23.4% and a win for Cerro Porteno had a probability of 16.05%.
The most likely scoreline for a Palmeiras win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.44%) and 2-1 (9.42%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.9%), while for a Cerro Porteno win it was 0-1 (6.31%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Palmeiras would win this match.
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