Copa Sudamericana | Group Stage

Jun 6, 2023 at 11pm UK

Estadio Olimpico Metropolitano de Merida

Estudiantes
1 - 0
Fortaleza

FT(HT: 0-0)

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Copa Sudamericana clash between Estudiantes Merida and Fortaleza, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Estudiantes Merida

Last Game: Estudiantes 1-5 Palestino
Friday, May 26 at 1am in Copa Sudamericana

Fortaleza

All competitions

Copa Sudamericana

Last Game: Fortaleza 0-0 Bahia
Saturday, June 3 at 8pm in Brasileiro

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fortaleza win with a probability of 51.28%. A draw had a probability of 25% and a win for Estudiantes Merida had a probability of 23.68%.

The most likely scoreline for a Fortaleza win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.51%) and 1-2 (9.5%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.9%), while for a Estudiantes Merida win it was 1-0 (7.46%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 7.5% likelihood.

Result
Estudiantes Merida	Draw	Fortaleza
23.68% ( -0.12)	25.04% ( -0.06)	51.28% ( 0.19)

Both teams to score 50.34% (

0.05)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

48% (

0.14)

52% (

-0.14)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

26.26% (

0.12)

73.74% (

-0.11)

Estudiantes Merida Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

63.14% (

-0.04)

36.85% (

0.04)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

26.35% (

-0.04)

73.64% (

0.04)

Fortaleza Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

79.72% (

0.13)

20.28% (

-0.13)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

47.36% (

0.21)

52.63% (

-0.21)

Score Analysis

Estudiantes Merida 23.68%

Fortaleza 51.27%

Draw 25.04%

Estudiantes Merida	Draw	Fortaleza
1-0 @ 7.46% ( -0.05) 2-1 @ 5.94% ( -0.02) 2-0 @ 3.72% ( -0.03) 3-1 @ 1.98% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 1.58% ( -0) 3-0 @ 1.24% ( -0.01) Other @ 1.76% Total : 23.68%	1-1 @ 11.9% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 7.47% ( -0.04) 2-2 @ 4.74% ( 0) Other @ 0.93% Total : 25.04%	0-1 @ 11.92% ( -0.02) 0-2 @ 9.51% ( 0.03) 1-2 @ 9.5% ( 0.02) 0-3 @ 5.06% ( 0.03) 1-3 @ 5.05% ( 0.03) 2-3 @ 2.52% ( 0.01) 0-4 @ 2.02% ( 0.02) 1-4 @ 2.02% ( 0.02) 2-4 @ 1.01% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.67% Total : 51.27%