Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Defensa y Justicia win with a probability of 58.78%. A draw had a probability of 25% and a win for Sarmiento had a probability of 16.26%.

The most likely scoreline for a Defensa y Justicia win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.81%) and 2-1 (8.95%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.26%), while for a Sarmiento win it was 0-1 (7.09%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Defensa y Justicia would win this match.

Result
Defensa y Justicia	Draw	Sarmiento
58.78% ( -0.27)	24.96% ( 0.02)	16.26% ( 0.26)

Both teams to score 40.01% (

0.42)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

40.07% (

0.28)

59.93% (

-0.28)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

19.81% (

0.21)

80.19% (

-0.21)

Defensa y Justicia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

79.59% (

20.42%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

47.15% (

52.85%

Sarmiento Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

50.28% (

0.52)

49.72% (

-0.52)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

15.53% (

0.36)

84.47% (

-0.36)

Score Analysis

Defensa y Justicia 58.77%

Sarmiento 16.26%

Draw 24.95%

Defensa y Justicia	Draw	Sarmiento
1-0 @ 16.12% ( -0.17) 2-0 @ 12.81% ( -0.13) 2-1 @ 8.95% ( 0.04) 3-0 @ 6.79% ( -0.07) 3-1 @ 4.74% ( 0.02) 4-0 @ 2.7% ( -0.03) 4-1 @ 1.88% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 1.66% ( 0.03) Other @ 3.12% Total : 58.77%	1-1 @ 11.26% ( 0.05) 0-0 @ 10.15% ( -0.1) 2-2 @ 3.13% ( 0.06) Other @ 0.41% Total : 24.95%	0-1 @ 7.09% ( 0.03) 1-2 @ 3.94% ( 0.08) 0-2 @ 2.48% ( 0.05) 1-3 @ 0.92% ( 0.03) Other @ 1.84% Total : 16.26%