Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sarmiento win with a probability of 40.24%. A win for Atletico Tucuman had a probability of 30.64% and a draw had a probability of 29.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Sarmiento win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.94%) and 2-1 (7.9%). The likeliest Atletico Tucuman win was 0-1 (11.25%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.32%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sarmiento would win this match.

Result
Sarmiento	Draw	Atletico Tucuman
40.24% ( -0.07)	29.12% ( 0.02)	30.64% ( 0.04)

Both teams to score 43.73% (

-0.04)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

37.17% (

-0.05)

62.83% (

0.05)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

17.65% (

-0.04)

82.34% (

0.04)

Sarmiento Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.41% (

-0.06)

30.58% (

0.07)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

33.18% (

-0.08)

66.82% (

0.08)

Atletico Tucuman Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

63% (

0.01)

36.99% (

-0)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

26.22% (

73.78% (

-0)

Score Analysis

Sarmiento 40.23%

Atletico Tucuman 30.64%

Draw 29.11%

Sarmiento	Draw	Atletico Tucuman
1-0 @ 13.4% 2-0 @ 7.94% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 7.9% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 3.14% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 3.12% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 1.55% ( -0) 4-0 @ 0.93% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 0.92% ( -0.01) Other @ 1.34% Total : 40.23%	1-1 @ 13.32% 0-0 @ 11.31% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 3.93% ( -0) Other @ 0.55% Total : 29.11%	0-1 @ 11.25% ( 0.03) 1-2 @ 6.63% ( 0) 0-2 @ 5.59% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 2.2% ( 0) 0-3 @ 1.85% ( 0) 2-3 @ 1.3% ( -0) Other @ 1.81% Total : 30.64%