Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Belgrano win with a probability of 44.14%. A draw had a probability of 30.8% and a win for Atletico Tucuman had a probability of 25.08%.
The most likely scoreline for a Belgrano win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.52%) and 2-1 (7.48%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (14.49%), while for an Atletico Tucuman win it was 0-1 (11.38%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 16.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Belgrano in this match.