Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Belgrano win with a probability of 35%. A win for Independiente had a probability of 34.81% and a draw had a probability of 30.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Belgrano win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.02%) and 0-2 (6.78%). The likeliest Independiente win was 1-0 (13.01%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.51%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood.