Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sarmiento win with a probability of 37.14%. A win for Velez Sarsfield had a probability of 34.83% and a draw had a probability of 28%.

The most likely scoreline for a Sarmiento win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.88%) and 2-0 (6.86%). The likeliest Velez Sarsfield win was 0-1 (11.01%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.17%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-1 draw for this match.

Result
Sarmiento	Draw	Velez Sarsfield
37.14% ( -0.1)	28.03% ( 0.04)	34.83% ( 0.07)

Both teams to score 47.65% (

-0.11)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

41.59% (

-0.14)

58.41% (

0.14)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

20.99% (

-0.11)

79.01% (

0.11)

Sarmiento Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.77% (

-0.13)

30.23% (

0.14)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

33.6% (

-0.16)

66.4% (

0.16)

Velez Sarsfield Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

68.3% (

-0.03)

31.7% (

0.03)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

31.89% (

-0.03)

68.12% (

0.03)

Score Analysis

Sarmiento 37.14%

Velez Sarsfield 34.83%

Draw 28.03%

Sarmiento	Draw	Velez Sarsfield
1-0 @ 11.46% ( 0.02) 2-1 @ 7.88% ( -0.02) 2-0 @ 6.86% ( -0.02) 3-1 @ 3.14% ( -0.02) 3-0 @ 2.73% ( -0.02) 3-2 @ 1.81% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 0.94% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.33% Total : 37.14%	1-1 @ 13.17% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 9.58% ( 0.05) 2-2 @ 4.53% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.75% Total : 28.03%	0-1 @ 11.01% ( 0.05) 1-2 @ 7.57% 0-2 @ 6.33% ( 0.02) 1-3 @ 2.9% ( -0) 0-3 @ 2.42% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 1.73% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.87% Total : 34.83%