Argentine Primera Division | Gameweek 22
Jul 1, 2023 at 1.30am UK
Estadio Jose Amalfitani

Velez Sarsfield
1 - 0
Arsenal

Castro (77', 77')
FT(HT: 0-0)

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Argentine Primera Division clash between Velez Sarsfield and Arsenal Sarandi, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Velez Sarsfield

All competitions
Last Game: Tigre 2-1 Velez Sarsfield
Thursday, June 22 at 9pm in Argentine Primera Division

Arsenal Sarandi

All competitions
Last Game: Arsenal 0-2 Platense
Sunday, June 25 at 7.30pm in Argentine Primera Division

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Velez Sarsfield win with a probability of 60.86%. A draw had a probability of 23.7% and a win for Arsenal Sarandi had a probability of 15.48%.

The most likely scoreline for a Velez Sarsfield win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.88%) and 2-1 (9.23%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.89%), while for an Arsenal Sarandi win it was 0-1 (6.43%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 15.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Velez Sarsfield in this match.

Result
Velez SarsfieldDrawArsenal Sarandi
60.86% (0.050999999999995 0.05)23.65% (-0.032 -0.03)15.48% (-0.023 -0.02)
Both teams to score 41.76% (0.028000000000006 0.03)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
43.32% (0.067 0.07)56.68% (-0.071000000000005 -0.07)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
22.36% (0.054000000000002 0.05)77.63% (-0.057999999999993 -0.06)
Velez Sarsfield Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
81.63% (0.040999999999997 0.04)18.37% (-0.045000000000002 -0.05)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
50.5% (0.074999999999996 0.07)49.49% (-0.079000000000001 -0.08)
Arsenal Sarandi Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
51.15% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)48.84% (-0.011000000000003 -0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
16.16% (0.004999999999999 0)83.84% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
Score Analysis
    Velez Sarsfield 60.86%
    Arsenal Sarandi 15.48%
    Draw 23.65%
Velez SarsfieldDrawArsenal Sarandi
1-0 @ 15.2% (-0.020000000000001 -0.02)
2-0 @ 12.88% (0.010000000000002 0.01)
2-1 @ 9.23% (0.0050000000000008 0.01)
3-0 @ 7.28% (0.012 0.01)
3-1 @ 5.21% (0.010000000000001 0.01)
4-0 @ 3.08% (0.01 0.01)
4-1 @ 2.21% (0.008 0.01)
3-2 @ 1.87% (0.004 0)
5-0 @ 1.05% (0.0049999999999999 0)
Other @ 2.86%
Total : 60.86%
1-1 @ 10.89% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
0-0 @ 8.97% (-0.023999999999999 -0.02)
2-2 @ 3.31% (0.0019999999999998 0)
Other @ 0.48%
Total : 23.65%
0-1 @ 6.43% (-0.015 -0.01)
1-2 @ 3.9% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
0-2 @ 2.3% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
1-3 @ 0.93% (-0.001 -0)
Other @ 1.91%
Total : 15.48%

Head to Head
Sep 11, 2022 5pm
Gameweek 18
Arsenal
2-2
Velez Sarsfield
Chimino (41'), Diaz (59' pen.)
Gariglio (31' og.), Brizuela (87')
Mar 11, 2022 10.15pm
Gameweek 6
Arsenal
0-0
Velez Sarsfield
Martinez (58')
Martinez (84')
Gomez (90+6')
Oct 16, 2021 1.15am
Second Phase
Velez Sarsfield
0-0
Arsenal
Poblete (20'), Ortega (35'), Mulet (81')
Mendez (29'), Papa (45+2'), Ruiz (71')
Feb 23, 2020 8.35pm
Gameweek 21
Arsenal
0-4
Velez Sarsfield

Cerica (28'), Mendez (36')
Centurion (13'), Janson (16'), Romero (47', 64')