Argentine Primera Division | Gameweek 17
May 19, 2023 at 1am UK
Estadio Julio Humberto Grondona
Independiente

Arsenal
2 - 1
Independiente

Laso (8' og., 8' og.), Pons (63', 63')
FT(HT: 2-0)
Gimenez Rojas (77', 77')
Coverage of the Argentine Primera Division clash between Arsenal Sarandi and Independiente.

Form, Standings, Stats

Arsenal Sarandi

All competitions
Last Game: Newell's OB 2-0 Arsenal
Sunday, May 14 at 12.30am in Argentine Primera Division

Independiente

All competitions
Last Game: Independiente 2-1 Tigre
Saturday, May 13 at 7.30pm in Argentine Primera Division

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Independiente win with a probability of 35.01%. A win for Arsenal Sarandi had a probability of 34.24% and a draw had a probability of 30.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Independiente win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (6.87%) and 1-2 (6.85%). The likeliest Arsenal Sarandi win was 1-0 (13.35%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.53%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood.

Result
Arsenal SarandiDrawIndependiente
34.24% (0.165 0.16)30.74% (0.143 0.14)35.01% (-0.306 -0.31)
Both teams to score 40.21% (-0.354 -0.35)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
32.63% (-0.415 -0.41)67.36% (0.416 0.42)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
14.49% (-0.279 -0.28)85.51% (0.28 0.28)
Arsenal Sarandi Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
63.14% (-0.116 -0.12)36.85% (0.118 0.12)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
26.36% (-0.116 -0.12)73.64% (0.11800000000001 0.12)
Independiente Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
63.68% (-0.44 -0.44)36.31% (0.441 0.44)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
26.9% (-0.451 -0.45)73.1% (0.45100000000001 0.45)
Score Analysis
    Arsenal Sarandi 34.23%
    Independiente 35%
    Draw 30.74%
Arsenal SarandiDrawIndependiente
1-0 @ 13.35% (0.16 0.16)
2-1 @ 6.75% (-0.02 -0.02)
2-0 @ 6.67% (0.06 0.06)
3-1 @ 2.25% (-0.013 -0.01)
3-0 @ 2.22% (0.013 0.01)
3-2 @ 1.14% (-0.021 -0.02)
Other @ 1.86%
Total : 34.23%
1-1 @ 13.53% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
0-0 @ 13.38% (0.21 0.21)
2-2 @ 3.42% (-0.051 -0.05)
Other @ 0.41%
Total : 30.74%
0-1 @ 13.55% (0.040000000000001 0.04)
0-2 @ 6.87% (-0.059 -0.06)
1-2 @ 6.85% (-0.081 -0.08)
0-3 @ 2.32% (-0.048 -0.05)
1-3 @ 2.31% (-0.056 -0.06)
2-3 @ 1.16% (-0.032 -0.03)
Other @ 1.95%
Total : 35%

Head to Head
Oct 2, 2022 12.30am
gameweek 22
Arsenal
0-1
Independiente

Perez (9')
Vallejo (3')
Feb 15, 2022 10.15pm
gameweek 2
Independiente
1-0
Arsenal
Pozzo (75')
Vigo (34'), Manuel Insaurralde (65'), Romero (82')

Suarez (51'), Goni (88')
Nov 6, 2021 9pm
Second Phase
Independiente
3-0
Arsenal
Sonora (17'), Romero (37'), Velasco (56')
Velasco (57')

Mendez (43')
Jan 3, 2021 8.10pm
Fase Campeon
Independiente
3-4
Arsenal
Romero (33'), Menendez (68'), Velasco (83')
Romero (74'), Velasco (75'), Franco (78')
Pusineri (74'), Franco (79')
Albertengo (15'), Candia (59'), Luna (73', 90+4')
Papa (82'), Candia (84'), Pons (90+1')
Candia (85')
Feb 18, 2020 12.10am
gameweek 20
Independiente
1-1
Arsenal
Fernandez (90')
Benavidez (38'), Mercado (42'), Barboza (86'), Fernandez (90')
Fernandez (90')
Alvarez Suarez (15')
Pereyra (49'), Sbuttoni (71'), Antilef (90')