Defensa y Justicia
Copa Sudamericana | Round of 16 | 2nd Leg
Aug 9, 2023 at 1am UK
Estadio Ciudad de La Plata
Emelec

Defensa
1 - 0
Emelec

Barbona (62', 62')
Togni (87'), Togni (87')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Villalba (35'), Villalba (35'), Carcelen (59'), Carcelen (59'), Leon (87'), Leon (87')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Copa Sudamericana clash between Defensa y Justicia and Emelec, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Defensa y Justicia

All competitions
Copa Sudamericana
Last Game: Emelec 1-2 Defensa
Wednesday, August 2 at 1am in Copa Sudamericana

Emelec

All competitions
Last Game: Emelec 1-2 Defensa
Wednesday, August 2 at 1am in Copa Sudamericana

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Defensa y Justicia win with a probability of 58.34%. A draw had a probability of 23.5% and a win for Emelec had a probability of 18.15%.

The most likely scoreline for a Defensa y Justicia win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.35%) and 2-1 (9.64%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.12%), while for a Emelec win it was 0-1 (6.42%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Defensa y Justicia in this match.

Result
Defensa y JusticiaDrawEmelec
58.34% (-1.402 -1.4)23.51% (0.612 0.61)18.15% (0.79 0.79)
Both teams to score 47.13% (-0.344 -0.34)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
47.74% (-1.231 -1.23)52.26% (1.23 1.23)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
26.04% (-1.069 -1.07)73.96% (1.069 1.07)
Defensa y Justicia Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
82.34% (-0.938 -0.94)17.66% (0.937 0.94)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
51.72% (-1.651 -1.65)48.28% (1.65 1.65)
Emelec Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
57.24% (0.233 0.23)42.76% (-0.232 -0.23)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
20.91% (0.195 0.2)79.09% (-0.196 -0.2)
Score Analysis
    Defensa y Justicia 58.34%
    Emelec 18.15%
    Draw 23.5%
Defensa y JusticiaDrawEmelec
1-0 @ 13.09% (0.24 0.24)
2-0 @ 11.35% (-0.14 -0.14)
2-1 @ 9.64% (-0.061999999999999 -0.06)
3-0 @ 6.56% (-0.294 -0.29)
3-1 @ 5.57% (-0.212 -0.21)
4-0 @ 2.84% (-0.22 -0.22)
4-1 @ 2.42% (-0.171 -0.17)
3-2 @ 2.37% (-0.075 -0.08)
4-2 @ 1.03% (-0.066 -0.07)
5-0 @ 0.99% (-0.11 -0.11)
Other @ 2.48%
Total : 58.34%
1-1 @ 11.12% (0.27 0.27)
0-0 @ 7.55% (0.362 0.36)
2-2 @ 4.1%
Other @ 0.74%
Total : 23.5%
0-1 @ 6.42% (0.347 0.35)
1-2 @ 4.73% (0.144 0.14)
0-2 @ 2.73% (0.163 0.16)
1-3 @ 1.34% (0.049 0.05)
2-3 @ 1.16% (0.0069999999999999 0.01)
Other @ 1.78%
Total : 18.15%

Head to Head
Aug 2, 2023 1am
Round of 16 1st Leg
Emelec
1-2
Defensa
Carabali (5')
Leon (40'), Carabali (52'), Ortiz (71')
Fernandez (87'), Togni (90+1')
Fernandez (1')
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