Emelec
Copa Sudamericana | Round of 16 | 1st Leg
Aug 2, 2023 at 1am UK
Estadio Banco del Pacifico
Defensa y Justicia

Emelec
1 - 2
Defensa

Carabali (5')
Leon (40'), Carabali (52'), Ortiz (71')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Fernandez (87'), Togni (90+1')
Fernandez (1')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Copa Sudamericana clash between Emelec and Defensa y Justicia, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Emelec

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Last Game: Emelec 0-0 Cristal
Thursday, July 20 at 1am in Copa Sudamericana
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Defensa y Justicia

All competitions
Copa Sudamericana
Last Game: Union 2-0 Defensa
Friday, July 28 at 8.30pm in Argentine Primera Division

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Emelec win with a probability of 46.58%. A draw had a probability of 27.4% and a win for Defensa y Justicia had a probability of 26.06%.

The most likely scoreline for a Emelec win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.2%) and 2-1 (8.79%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.77%), while for a Defensa y Justicia win it was 0-1 (9.29%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Defensa y Justicia in this match.

Result
EmelecDrawDefensa y Justicia
46.58% (-0.067 -0.07)27.36% (0.029 0.03)26.06% (0.041 0.04)
Both teams to score 45.96% (-0.047000000000004 -0.05)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
41.2% (-0.076000000000001 -0.08)58.8% (0.076999999999998 0.08)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
20.68% (-0.058 -0.06)79.31% (0.058999999999997 0.06)
Emelec Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
74.73% (-0.066000000000003 -0.07)25.26% (0.067 0.07)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
39.97% (-0.091999999999999 -0.09)60.02% (0.091999999999999 0.09)
Defensa y Justicia Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
61.5% (-0.0079999999999956 -0.01)38.49% (0.0080000000000027 0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
24.76% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)75.24% (0.0079999999999956 0.01)
Score Analysis
    Emelec 46.57%
    Defensa y Justicia 26.06%
    Draw 27.35%
EmelecDrawDefensa y Justicia
1-0 @ 13.37% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
2-0 @ 9.2% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
2-1 @ 8.79% (-0.011000000000001 -0.01)
3-0 @ 4.22% (-0.013 -0.01)
3-1 @ 4.03% (-0.013 -0.01)
3-2 @ 1.92% (-0.0069999999999999 -0.01)
4-0 @ 1.45% (-0.008 -0.01)
4-1 @ 1.39% (-0.0070000000000001 -0.01)
Other @ 2.2%
Total : 46.57%
1-1 @ 12.77% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
0-0 @ 9.73% (0.028 0.03)
2-2 @ 4.19% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
Other @ 0.67%
Total : 27.35%
0-1 @ 9.29% (0.025 0.03)
1-2 @ 6.1% (0.0030000000000001 0)
0-2 @ 4.43% (0.011 0.01)
1-3 @ 1.94%
0-3 @ 1.41% (0.0029999999999999 0)
2-3 @ 1.34% (-0.002 -0)
Other @ 1.56%
Total : 26.06%

How you voted: Emelec vs Defensa

Emelec
0.0%
Draw
20.0%
Defensa y Justicia
80.0%
5