Copa Sudamericana | Group Stage

May 4, 2023 at 1am UK

Guarani
1 - 1
Emelec

Santander (63')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Cabeza (83')

Coverage of the Copa Sudamericana Group Stage clash between Guarani and Emelec.

Form, Standings, Stats

Guarani

Last Game: Guarani 2-1 Danubio
Wednesday, April 19 at 11pm in Copa Sudamericana

Emelec

Last Game: Emelec 1-0 Huracan
Friday, April 21 at 3am in Copa Sudamericana

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Guarani win with a probability of 38.82%. A win for Emelec had a probability of 34.4% and a draw had a probability of 26.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Guarani win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.35%) and 2-0 (6.85%). The likeliest Emelec win was 0-1 (9.7%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.72%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.7% likelihood.

Result
Guarani	Draw	Emelec
38.82% ( -0.09)	26.77% ( -0.08)	34.4% ( 0.17)

Both teams to score 51.48% (

0.28)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

46.41% (

0.35)

53.58% (

-0.35)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

24.91% (

0.29)

75.09% (

-0.3)

Guarani Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

73.07% (

0.11)

26.92% (

-0.12)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

37.75% (

0.15)

62.25% (

-0.15)

Emelec Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

70.44% (

0.28)

29.55% (

-0.28)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

34.42% (

0.34)

65.57% (

-0.34)

Score Analysis

Guarani 38.82%

Emelec 34.4%

Draw 26.77%

Guarani	Draw	Emelec
1-0 @ 10.44% ( -0.11) 2-1 @ 8.35% ( 0) 2-0 @ 6.85% ( -0.05) 3-1 @ 3.65% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 3% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 2.23% ( 0.02) 4-1 @ 1.2% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 0.98% ( -0) Other @ 2.13% Total : 38.82%	1-1 @ 12.72% ( -0.04) 0-0 @ 7.96% ( -0.11) 2-2 @ 5.09% ( 0.04) 3-3 @ 0.91% ( 0.02) Other @ 0.1% Total : 26.77%	0-1 @ 9.7% ( -0.06) 1-2 @ 7.76% ( 0.04) 0-2 @ 5.91% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 3.15% ( 0.04) 0-3 @ 2.4% ( 0.02) 2-3 @ 2.07% ( 0.03) 1-4 @ 0.96% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.45% Total : 34.4%