Copa Sudamericana | Quarter-Finals | 1st Leg
Aug 24, 2023 at 11pm UK
Estadio de Liga Deportiva Universitaria
Sao Paulo

LDU Quito
2 - 1
Sao Paulo

Julio (2'), Ibarra (25')
Gonzalez (85')
FT(HT: 2-0)
Moura (80')
Rafinha (12'), Beraldo (45+1'), Luan (87')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Copa Sudamericana clash between LDU Quito and Sao Paulo, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

LDU Quito

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Last Game: LDU Quito 2-3 Nublense (4-3 pen.)
Friday, August 11 at 1am in Copa Sudamericana
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Sao Paulo

All competitions
Copa Sudamericana
Last Game: Sao Paulo 0-0 Botafogo
Saturday, August 19 at 8pm in Brasileiro

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a LDU Quito win with a probability of 38.36%. A win for Sao Paulo had a probability of 36.69% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a LDU Quito win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.27%) and 2-0 (6%). The likeliest Sao Paulo win was 1-2 (8.27%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.69%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for LDU Quito in this match.

Result
LDU QuitoDrawSao Paulo
38.36% (-0.0050000000000026 -0.01)24.95% (-0.0019999999999989 -0)36.69% (0.007000000000005 0.01)
Both teams to score 57.94% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
54.58% (0.010000000000005 0.01)45.42% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
32.25% (0.009999999999998 0.01)67.75% (-0.010000000000005 -0.01)
LDU Quito Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
76.56% (0.0030000000000001 0)23.44% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
42.56% (0.0050000000000026 0.01)57.44% (-0.0039999999999978 -0)
Sao Paulo Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
75.68% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)24.32% (-0.0080000000000027 -0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
41.29% (0.012 0.01)58.71% (-0.010000000000005 -0.01)
Score Analysis
    LDU Quito 38.36%
    Sao Paulo 36.69%
    Draw 24.94%
LDU QuitoDrawSao Paulo
2-1 @ 8.48%
1-0 @ 8.27% (-0.0020000000000007 -0)
2-0 @ 6% (-0.0020000000000007 -0)
3-1 @ 4.1%
3-0 @ 2.9% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
3-2 @ 2.9% (0.00099999999999989 0)
4-1 @ 1.49%
4-0 @ 1.05% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
4-2 @ 1.05%
Other @ 2.11%
Total : 38.36%
1-1 @ 11.69%
2-2 @ 6% (0.0010000000000003 0)
0-0 @ 5.7% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
3-3 @ 1.37% (0.00099999999999989 0)
Other @ 0.19%
Total : 24.94%
1-2 @ 8.27%
0-1 @ 8.06% (-0.0010000000000012 -0)
0-2 @ 5.7%
1-3 @ 3.9% (0.00099999999999989 0)
2-3 @ 2.83% (0.00099999999999989 0)
0-3 @ 2.69% (0.00099999999999989 0)
1-4 @ 1.38% (0.0010000000000001 0)
2-4 @ 1% (0.001 0)
0-4 @ 0.95%
Other @ 1.94%
Total : 36.69%

How you voted: LDU Quito vs Sao Paulo

LDU Quito
37.5%
Draw
25.0%
Sao Paulo
37.5%
16
Head to Head
Sep 23, 2020 1.30am
Group Stage
LDU Quito
4-2
Sao Paulo
Julio (36', 45+1'), Arce (76')
Zunino (33'), Piovi (37')
Brenner (60')
Nestor (90')
Mar 12, 2020 12.30am
Group Stage
Sao Paulo
3-0
LDU Quito
Reinaldo (14' pen.), Alves (15'), Gomes (61')
Reinaldo (26'), Juanfran (45'), Pablo (90')

Quinteros (26'), Guerra (37'), Ayala (41'), Valencia (76')
Sornoza (67')