Copa Sudamericana | Group Stage
Jun 30, 2023 at 1am UK
Estadio de Liga Deportiva Universitaria

LDU Quito
3 - 0
Cesar Vallejo

Julio (29'), Alvarado (76'), Alzugaray (88')
FT(HT: 1-0)

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's Copa Sudamericana clash between LDU Quito and Cesar Vallejo, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

LDU Quito

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Last Game: LDU Quito 0-0 Botafogo
Wednesday, June 7 at 3am in Copa Sudamericana
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Cesar Vallejo

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Last Game: Cesar Vallejo 3-2 Magallanes
Friday, June 9 at 3am in Copa Sudamericana
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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a LDU Quito win with a probability of 80.21%. A draw had a probability of 13.7% and a win for Cesar Vallejo had a probability of 6.08%.

The most likely scoreline for a LDU Quito win was 2-0 with a probability of 14.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (12.38%) and 1-0 (11.73%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.44%), while for a Cesar Vallejo win it was 0-1 (2.56%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 12.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that LDU Quito would win this match.

Result
LDU QuitoDrawCesar Vallejo
80.21% (1.62 1.62)13.71% (-0.82 -0.82)6.08% (-0.796 -0.8)
Both teams to score 38.83% (-1.617 -1.62)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
59.12% (0.529 0.53)40.88% (-0.526 -0.53)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
36.73% (0.539 0.54)63.27% (-0.535 -0.53)
LDU Quito Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
91.92% (0.49499999999999 0.49)8.08% (-0.4909 -0.49)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
71.6% (1.227 1.23)28.4% (-1.223 -1.22)
Cesar Vallejo Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
42.25% (-1.995 -2)57.75% (1.999 2)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
10.54% (-1.13 -1.13)89.46% (1.135 1.14)
Score Analysis
    LDU Quito 80.19%
    Cesar Vallejo 6.08%
    Draw 13.71%
LDU QuitoDrawCesar Vallejo
2-0 @ 14.76% (0.34 0.34)
3-0 @ 12.38% (0.57 0.57)
1-0 @ 11.73%
2-1 @ 8.11% (-0.318 -0.32)
4-0 @ 7.79% (0.536 0.54)
3-1 @ 6.8% (-0.101 -0.1)
4-1 @ 4.28% (0.039 0.04)
5-0 @ 3.92% (0.355 0.36)
5-1 @ 2.15% (0.069 0.07)
3-2 @ 1.87% (-0.15 -0.15)
6-0 @ 1.64% (0.184 0.18)
4-2 @ 1.17% (-0.064 -0.06)
6-1 @ 0.9% (0.05 0.05)
Other @ 2.69%
Total : 80.19%
1-1 @ 6.44% (-0.414 -0.41)
0-0 @ 4.67% (-0.113 -0.11)
2-2 @ 2.23% (-0.236 -0.24)
Other @ 0.37%
Total : 13.71%
0-1 @ 2.56% (-0.23 -0.23)
1-2 @ 1.77% (-0.234 -0.23)
Other @ 1.75%
Total : 6.08%

How you voted: LDU Quito vs Cesar Vallejo

LDU Quito
100%
Draw
0.0%
Cesar Vallejo
0.0%
13
Head to Head
Apr 5, 2023 1am
Group Stage
Cesar Vallejo
1-2
LDU Quito
Velez (70' pen.)
Alzugaray (52'), Anangono (90+6')