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Copa Sudamericana | Group Stage
Apr 21, 2023 at 1am UK
Estádio Nilton Santos

Botafogo
4 - 0
Cesar Vallejo

Victor (14'), Tiquinho (45+3' pen.), Eduardo (57'), Tche (73' pen.)
FT(HT: 2-0)
Coverage of the Copa Sudamericana Group Stage clash between Botafogo and Cesar Vallejo.

Form, Standings, Stats

Botafogo

All competitions
Copa Sudamericana
Last Game: Botafogo 2-1 Sao Paulo
Saturday, April 15 at 10.30pm in Brasileiro

Cesar Vallejo

All competitions
Last Game: Cesar Vallejo 1-2 LDU Quito
Wednesday, April 5 at 1am in Copa Sudamericana

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Botafogo win with a probability of 62.28%. A draw had a probability of 21.9% and a win for Cesar Vallejo had a probability of 15.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Botafogo win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.9%) and 2-1 (9.73%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.39%), while for a Cesar Vallejo win it was 0-1 (5.56%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 3.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Botafogo would win this match.

Result
BotafogoDrawCesar Vallejo
62.28% (-0.133 -0.13)21.92% (-0.045999999999999 -0.05)15.8% (0.181 0.18)
Both teams to score 47.22% (0.524 0.52)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
50.34% (0.495 0.5)49.66% (-0.492 -0.49)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
28.32% (0.439 0.44)71.68% (-0.437 -0.44)
Botafogo Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
84.6% (0.124 0.12)15.4% (-0.121 -0.12)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
55.79% (0.229 0.23)44.21% (-0.226 -0.23)
Cesar Vallejo Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
55.82% (0.54 0.54)44.18% (-0.536 -0.54)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
19.73% (0.438 0.44)80.27% (-0.434 -0.43)
Score Analysis
    Botafogo 62.27%
    Cesar Vallejo 15.8%
    Draw 21.91%
BotafogoDrawCesar Vallejo
1-0 @ 12.72% (-0.21 -0.21)
2-0 @ 11.9% (-0.14 -0.14)
2-1 @ 9.73% (0.033000000000001 0.03)
3-0 @ 7.43% (-0.054 -0.05)
3-1 @ 6.07% (0.046 0.05)
4-0 @ 3.47% (-0.011 -0.01)
4-1 @ 2.84% (0.033 0.03)
3-2 @ 2.48% (0.055 0.05)
5-0 @ 1.3% (0.002 0)
4-2 @ 1.16% (0.031 0.03)
5-1 @ 1.06% (0.017 0.02)
Other @ 2.12%
Total : 62.27%
1-1 @ 10.39% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
0-0 @ 6.8% (-0.137 -0.14)
2-2 @ 3.97% (0.072 0.07)
Other @ 0.74%
Total : 21.91%
0-1 @ 5.56% (-0.028 -0.03)
1-2 @ 4.25% (0.06 0.06)
0-2 @ 2.27% (0.023 0.02)
1-3 @ 1.16% (0.033 0.03)
2-3 @ 1.08% (0.036 0.04)
Other @ 1.49%
Total : 15.8%