Copa Sudamericana | First Round
Mar 9, 2023 at 2am UK
Estadio Mansiche

Cesar Vallejo
3 - 1
Binacional

Stefano Olaya Maker (40'), Olaya (40'), Vanegas (74'), Mena Serna (82' og.), Mena (82' og.)
FT(HT: 2-2)
Roberto Palacios Bustamante (1'), Palacios (1')
Coverage of the Copa Sudamericana First Round clash between Cesar Vallejo and Deportivo Binacional.

Form, Standings, Stats

Cesar Vallejo

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Last Game: Olimpia 2-0 Cesar Vallejo
Thursday, February 17 at 12.30am in Copa Libertadores
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Deportivo Binacional

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Last Game: Sao Paulo 5-1 Binacional
Wednesday, October 21 at 1.30am in Copa Libertadores
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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cesar Vallejo win with a probability of 69.82%. A draw had a probability of 18.1% and a win for Deportivo Binacional had a probability of 12.04%.

The most likely scoreline for a Cesar Vallejo win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.69%) and 2-1 (9.62%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.61%), while for a Deportivo Binacional win it was 0-1 (3.86%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 7.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Cesar Vallejo would win this match.

Result
Cesar VallejoDrawDeportivo Binacional
69.82% (-0.21100000000001 -0.21)18.14% (0.07 0.07)12.04% (0.144 0.14)
Both teams to score 49.37% (0.212 0.21)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
58.54% (0.042999999999999 0.04)41.45% (-0.040999999999997 -0.04)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
36.14% (0.042000000000002 0.04)63.85% (-0.042000000000002 -0.04)
Cesar Vallejo Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
89.28% (-0.042000000000002 -0.04)10.72% (0.045 0.04)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
65.35% (-0.094000000000008 -0.09)34.64% (0.094999999999999 0.09)
Deportivo Binacional Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
55.3% (0.264 0.26)44.7% (-0.261 -0.26)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
19.31% (0.213 0.21)80.69% (-0.20999999999999 -0.21)
Score Analysis
    Cesar Vallejo 69.81%
    Deportivo Binacional 12.04%
    Draw 18.14%
Cesar VallejoDrawDeportivo Binacional
2-0 @ 11.94% (-0.07 -0.07)
1-0 @ 10.69% (-0.040000000000001 -0.04)
2-1 @ 9.62% (0.017999999999999 0.02)
3-0 @ 8.89% (-0.065 -0.06)
3-1 @ 7.16% (0.0010000000000003 0)
4-0 @ 4.97% (-0.045 -0.04)
4-1 @ 4% (-0.0070000000000001 -0.01)
3-2 @ 2.88% (0.022 0.02)
5-0 @ 2.22% (-0.024 -0.02)
5-1 @ 1.79% (-0.006 -0.01)
4-2 @ 1.61% (0.0090000000000001 0.01)
Other @ 4.04%
Total : 69.81%
1-1 @ 8.61% (0.030999999999999 0.03)
0-0 @ 4.79% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
2-2 @ 3.87% (0.035 0.04)
Other @ 0.87%
Total : 18.14%
0-1 @ 3.86% (0.021 0.02)
1-2 @ 3.47% (0.038 0.04)
0-2 @ 1.55% (0.02 0.02)
2-3 @ 1.04% (0.017 0.02)
1-3 @ 0.93% (0.017 0.02)
Other @ 1.19%
Total : 12.04%

rhs 2.0


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