Copa Sudamericana | Group Stage
Apr 20, 2023 at 3am UK
 

LDU Quito
4 - 0
Magallanes

Enrique Angulo (53', 53', 55'), Martinez (86'), Pinero (89' og.)
FT(HT: 0-0)
Coverage of the Copa Sudamericana Group Stage clash between LDU Quito and Magallanes.

Form, Standings, Stats

LDU Quito

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Last Game: Cesar Vallejo 1-2 LDU Quito
Wednesday, April 5 at 1am in Copa Sudamericana
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Magallanes

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Last Game: Magallanes 2-2 Botafogo
Friday, April 7 at 1am in Copa Sudamericana
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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a LDU Quito win with a probability of 56.12%. A draw had a probability of 22.7% and a win for Magallanes had a probability of 21.18%.

The most likely scoreline for a LDU Quito win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.89%) and 2-0 (9.48%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.72%), while for a Magallanes win it was 0-1 (5.82%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that LDU Quito would win this match.

Result
LDU QuitoDrawMagallanes
56.12% (-1.658 -1.66)22.7% (0.939 0.94)21.18% (0.724 0.72)
Both teams to score 54.5% (-2.041 -2.04)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
55.08% (-3.239 -3.24)44.91% (3.242 3.24)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
32.73% (-3.192 -3.19)67.27% (3.197 3.2)
LDU Quito Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
84.17% (-1.641 -1.64)15.82% (1.644 1.64)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
55% (-3.119 -3.12)45% (3.123 3.12)
Magallanes Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
64.75% (-1.139 -1.14)35.25% (1.143 1.14)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
27.99% (-1.209 -1.21)72.01% (1.212 1.21)
Score Analysis
    LDU Quito 56.11%
    Magallanes 21.18%
    Draw 22.7%
LDU QuitoDrawMagallanes
1-0 @ 10.28% (0.833 0.83)
2-1 @ 9.89% (-0.040000000000001 -0.04)
2-0 @ 9.48% (0.253 0.25)
3-1 @ 6.08% (-0.388 -0.39)
3-0 @ 5.83% (-0.182 -0.18)
3-2 @ 3.17% (-0.309 -0.31)
4-1 @ 2.8% (-0.356 -0.36)
4-0 @ 2.69% (-0.249 -0.25)
4-2 @ 1.46% (-0.237 -0.24)
5-1 @ 1.03% (-0.201 -0.2)
5-0 @ 0.99% (-0.156 -0.16)
Other @ 2.43%
Total : 56.11%
1-1 @ 10.72% (0.56 0.56)
0-0 @ 5.58% (0.742 0.74)
2-2 @ 5.15% (-0.185 -0.19)
3-3 @ 1.1% (-0.145 -0.15)
Other @ 0.14%
Total : 22.7%
0-1 @ 5.82% (0.614 0.61)
1-2 @ 5.59% (0.125 0.13)
0-2 @ 3.03% (0.234 0.23)
1-3 @ 1.94% (-0.016 -0.02)
2-3 @ 1.79% (-0.123 -0.12)
0-3 @ 1.05% (0.051 0.05)
Other @ 1.96%
Total : 21.18%