Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Defensa y Justicia win with a probability of 38.52%. A win for LDU Quito had a probability of 37.36% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Defensa y Justicia win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.35%) and 0-2 (5.63%). The likeliest LDU Quito win was 2-1 (8.33%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.06%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 6.4% likelihood.