Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Union win with a probability of 42.02%. A win for Defensa y Justicia had a probability of 31.6% and a draw had a probability of 26.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Union win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.75%) and 2-0 (7.46%). The likeliest Defensa y Justicia win was 0-1 (9%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.54%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.4% likelihood.