San Lorenzo
Copa Sudamericana | Round of 16 | 1st Leg
Aug 3, 2023 at 11pm UK
Estadio Pedro Bidegain
Sao Paulo

San Lorenzo
1 - 0
Sao Paulo

Bareiro (51')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Nestor (23'), Arboleda (33'), Araujo (75'), David (90+3')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Copa Sudamericana clash between San Lorenzo and Sao Paulo, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

San Lorenzo

All competitions
Copa Sudamericana
Last Game: Tigre 2-0 San Lorenzo
Sunday, July 30 at 12am in Argentine Primera Division

Sao Paulo

All competitions
Copa Sudamericana
Last Game: Sao Paulo 0-0 Bahia
Sunday, July 30 at 3pm in Brasileiro

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sao Paulo win with a probability of 38.38%. A win for San Lorenzo had a probability of 31.98% and a draw had a probability of 29.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Sao Paulo win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.57%) and 0-2 (7.56%). The likeliest San Lorenzo win was 1-0 (11.92%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.43%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.9% likelihood.

Result
San LorenzoDrawSao Paulo
31.98% (-0.013999999999999 -0.01)29.64% (0.0030000000000001 0)38.38% (0.010999999999996 0.01)
Both teams to score 42.76% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
35.8% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)64.2% (0.0099999999999909 0.01)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
16.67% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)83.33% (0.007000000000005 0.01)
San Lorenzo Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
63.26% (-0.015000000000001 -0.02)36.74% (0.015000000000001 0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
26.48% (-0.016999999999999 -0.02)73.52% (0.016000000000005 0.02)
Sao Paulo Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
67.6% (0.0020000000000095 0)32.41% (-0.00099999999999767 -0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
31.08% (0.0029999999999966 0)68.92% (-0.00099999999999056 -0)
Score Analysis
    San Lorenzo 31.98%
    Sao Paulo 38.38%
    Draw 29.63%
San LorenzoDrawSao Paulo
1-0 @ 11.92%
2-1 @ 6.73% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
2-0 @ 5.97% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
3-1 @ 2.25% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
3-0 @ 1.99% (-0.002 -0)
3-2 @ 1.27% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
Other @ 1.86%
Total : 31.98%
1-1 @ 13.43%
0-0 @ 11.9%
2-2 @ 3.79% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
Other @ 0.51%
Total : 29.63%
0-1 @ 13.41% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
1-2 @ 7.57% (0.0010000000000003 0)
0-2 @ 7.56% (0.0030000000000001 0)
1-3 @ 2.84%
0-3 @ 2.84% (0.00099999999999989 0)
2-3 @ 1.42% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
Other @ 2.73%
Total : 38.38%

How you voted: San Lorenzo vs Sao Paulo

San Lorenzo
27.8%
Draw
27.8%
Sao Paulo
44.4%
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