Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sao Paulo win with a probability of 38.09%. A win for Cuiaba had a probability of 33.46% and a draw had a probability of 28.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sao Paulo win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.88%) and 0-2 (7.2%). The likeliest Cuiaba win was 1-0 (11.15%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.26%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.3% likelihood.