Copa Sudamericana | Round of 16 | 2nd Leg

Aug 11, 2023 at 1am UK

Estadio de Liga Deportiva Universitaria

LDU Quito
2 - 3
Nublense

Julio (26', 26'), Gonzalez (90+1', 90+1')
Dominguez (33'), Dominguez (33'), Zubeldia (34'), Zubeldia (34'), Gonzalez (90+2'), Gonzalez (90+2')

FT
(aet)

Rubio (35' pen., 35' pen.), Mina (60' og., 60' og.), Manuel Rivera Zuniga (90+3', 90+3')
Manuel Rivera Zuniga (64'), Manuel Rivera Zuniga (64'), Antonio Cisterna Arancibia (90+4'), Aranguiz (90+4')

LDU Quito win 4-3 on penalties

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's Copa Sudamericana clash between LDU Quito and Nublense, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

LDU Quito

Last Game: Palmeiras 4-0 LDU Quito
Friday, October 31 at 12.30am in Copa Libertadores

Nublense

Last Game: Nublense 1-1 Boston River
Wednesday, February 26 at 10pm in Copa Libertadores

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a LDU Quito win with a probability of 71.25%. A draw had a probability of 18.8% and a win for Nublense had a probability of 9.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a LDU Quito win was 2-0 with a probability of 14.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (14.27%) and 3-0 (10.04%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.74%), while for a Nublense win it was 0-1 (4.25%).

Result
LDU Quito	Draw	Nublense
71.25% ( 0.05)	18.84% ( 0.13)	9.9% ( -0.18)

Both teams to score 39.91% (

-1.04)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

49.83% (

-1.04)

50.17% (

1.04)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

27.87% (

-0.93)

72.13% (

0.94)

LDU Quito Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

87.19% (

-0.29)

12.81% (

0.29)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

60.87% (

-0.6)

39.13% (

0.61)

Nublense Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

45.77% (

-1.03)

54.22% (

1.04)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

12.58% (

-0.65)

87.41% (

0.65)

Score Analysis

LDU Quito 71.24%

Nublense 9.9%

Draw 18.84%

LDU Quito	Draw	Nublense
2-0 @ 14.66% ( 0.29) 1-0 @ 14.27% ( 0.44) 3-0 @ 10.04% ( 0.08) 2-1 @ 8.98% ( -0.1) 3-1 @ 6.15% ( -0.14) 4-0 @ 5.16% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 3.16% ( -0.11) 5-0 @ 2.12% ( -0.03) 3-2 @ 1.88% ( -0.1) 5-1 @ 1.3% ( -0.06) 4-2 @ 0.97% ( -0.06) Other @ 2.55% Total : 71.24%	1-1 @ 8.74% ( 0) 0-0 @ 6.94% ( 0.29) 2-2 @ 2.75% ( -0.12) Other @ 0.42% Total : 18.84%	0-1 @ 4.25% ( 0.05) 1-2 @ 2.67% ( -0.08) 0-2 @ 1.3% ( -0.03) Other @ 1.68% Total : 9.9%