Nublense
Copa Sudamericana | Round of 16 | 1st Leg
Aug 4, 2023 at 1am UK
Estadio Municipal Alcaldesa Ester Roa Rebolledo

Nublense
0 - 1
LDU Quito


Caroca (54')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Guerrero (60')
Ade (38'), Gonzalez (87'), Dominguez (90+6')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's Copa Sudamericana clash between Nublense and LDU Quito, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Nublense

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Last Game: Audax 0-1 Nublense
Friday, July 21 at 11pm in Copa Sudamericana
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LDU Quito

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Last Game: LDU Quito 3-0 Cesar Vallejo
Friday, June 30 at 1am in Copa Sudamericana
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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a LDU Quito win with a probability of 44.25%. A win for Nublense had a probability of 29.72% and a draw had a probability of 26%.

The most likely scoreline for a LDU Quito win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9%) and 0-2 (7.88%). The likeliest Nublense win was 1-0 (8.51%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.38%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 10.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for LDU Quito in this match.

Result
NublenseDrawLDU Quito
29.72% (0.0050000000000026 0.01)26.03% (0.00099999999999767 0)44.25% (-0.007000000000005 -0.01)
Both teams to score 52.2% (-0.0019999999999953 -0)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
48.09% (-0.0020000000000024 -0)51.91% (0.0030000000000001 0)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
26.34% (-0.0040000000000013 -0)73.66% (0.0030000000000001 0)
Nublense Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
68.11% (0.0020000000000095 0)31.89% (-0.0019999999999989 -0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
31.67% (0.00099999999999767 0)68.33% (-0.00099999999999056 -0)
LDU Quito Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
76.64% (-0.0039999999999907 -0)23.36% (0.0040000000000013 0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
42.67% (-0.0039999999999978 -0)57.33% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
Score Analysis
    Nublense 29.72%
    LDU Quito 44.25%
    Draw 26.03%
NublenseDrawLDU Quito
1-0 @ 8.51% (0.0020000000000007 0)
2-1 @ 7.08%
2-0 @ 4.87% (0.0010000000000003 0)
3-1 @ 2.7% (0.0010000000000003 0)
3-2 @ 1.96%
3-0 @ 1.85% (0.0010000000000001 0)
Other @ 2.76%
Total : 29.72%
1-1 @ 12.38% (0.010000000000002 0.01)
0-0 @ 7.45%
2-2 @ 5.15%
3-3 @ 0.95%
Other @ 0.11%
Total : 26.03%
0-1 @ 10.83%
1-2 @ 9%
0-2 @ 7.88% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
1-3 @ 4.36%
0-3 @ 3.82%
2-3 @ 2.49%
1-4 @ 1.59% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
0-4 @ 1.39%
2-4 @ 0.91%
Other @ 1.99%
Total : 44.25%

How you voted: Nublense vs LDU Quito

Nublense
25.0%
Draw
12.5%
LDU Quito
62.5%
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