Copa America | Group Stage

Jun 29, 2024 at 2am UK

Allegiant Stadium

Paraguay
1 - 4
Brazil

Alderete (48', 48')
Balbuena (45+3'), Balbuena (45+3'), Caballero (90+3'), Caballero (90+3')

FT(HT: 0-6)

Junior (35', 35', 45+5', 45+5'), Savio (43', 43'), Paqueta (65' pen., 65' pen.)
Wendell (45+3'), Wendell (45+3'), Paqueta (70'), Paqueta (70'), Junior (83'), Junior (83')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Copa America clash between Paraguay and Brazil, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Predicted Lineups

Sports Mole takes an in-depth look at how Brazil could line up for Friday's Copa America clash with Paraguay.

Form, Standings, Stats

Paraguay

All competitions

Copa America

Last Game: Colombia 2-1 Paraguay
Monday, June 24 at 11pm in Copa America

Current CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Argentina	6	6	15
2	Uruguay	6	8	13
3	Colombia	6	3	12
4	Ecuador	6	2	11
5	Venezuela	6	3	9
6	Brazil	6	1	7
7	Paraguay	6	-2	5
8	Chile	6	-4	5
9	Bolivia	6	-10	3
10	Peru	6	-7	2

Brazil

All competitions

Copa America

Last Game: Brazil 0-0 Costa Rica
Tuesday, June 25 at 2am in Copa America

Current CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Argentina	6	6	15
2	Uruguay	6	8	13
3	Colombia	6	3	12
4	Ecuador	6	2	11
5	Venezuela	6	3	9
6	Brazil	6	1	7
7	Paraguay	6	-2	5
8	Chile	6	-4	5
9	Bolivia	6	-10	3
10	Peru	6	-7	2

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Brazil win with a probability of 66.8%. A draw had a probability of 21.1% and a win for Paraguay had a probability of 12.11%.

The most likely scoreline for a Brazil win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (14.06%) and 1-2 (9.16%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.73%), while for a Paraguay win it was 1-0 (5.17%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Brazil would win this match.

Result
Paraguay	Draw	Brazil
12.11% ( 0.04)	21.08% ( 0.01)	66.8% ( -0.05)

Both teams to score 40.57% (

0.09)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

46.48% (

0.05)

53.52% (

-0.04)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

24.97% (

0.04)

75.03% (

-0.04)

Paraguay Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

47.85% (

0.1)

52.15% (

-0.1)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

13.9% (

0.07)

86.1% (

-0.06)

Brazil Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

84.78%

15.22%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

56.13% (

-0)

43.87% (

Score Analysis

Paraguay 12.11%

Brazil 66.8%

Draw 21.08%

Paraguay	Draw	Brazil
1-0 @ 5.17% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 3.17% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 1.68% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.1% Total : 12.11%	1-1 @ 9.73% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 7.94% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 2.98% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.44% Total : 21.08%	0-1 @ 14.94% ( -0.02) 0-2 @ 14.06% ( -0.03) 1-2 @ 9.16% ( 0.01) 0-3 @ 8.83% ( -0.02) 1-3 @ 5.75% ( 0.01) 0-4 @ 4.15% ( -0.01) 1-4 @ 2.71% ( 0) 2-3 @ 1.87% ( 0.01) 0-5 @ 1.56% ( -0) 1-5 @ 1.02% Other @ 2.76% Total : 66.8%