World Cup

World Cup Qualifying - South America | Group Stage

Nov 22, 2023 at 12.30am UK

Estadio Jornalista Mario Filho

Brazil
0 - 1
Argentina

Jesus (5'), Jesus (5'), Raphinha (14'), Raphinha (14'), Augusto (33'), Augusto (33')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Otamendi (63', 63')

Reaction

Argentina coach Lionel Scaloni reacts on November 22, 2023

Lionel Scaloni hints at stepping down from Argentina job

Argentina boss Lionel Scaloni admits that he is weighing up his future after seeing his side beat Brazil 1-0 in World Cup qualifying.

Nov 22, 21:03

Argentina's Nicolas Otamendi celebrates scoring their first goal with teammates on November 22, 2023

Argentina inflict first-ever home World Cup qualifying defeat on Brazil

A Nicolas Otamendi header sees Argentina inflict a first-ever home World Cup qualifying defeat on Brazil as the world champions record a famous 1-0 victory at the Maracana.

Nov 22, 07:50

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's 2026 World Cup qualification match between Brazil and Argentina, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Predicted Lineups

Sports Mole looks at how Argentina could line up in Tuesday's 2026 World Cup qualifier with Brazil.

Form, Standings, Stats

Brazil

All competitions

World Cup Qualifying

Last Game: Colombia 2-1 Brazil
Friday, November 17 at 12am in World Cup Qualifying - South America

Current CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Argentina	5	5	12
2	Uruguay	5	5	10
3	Colombia	5	2	9
4	Venezuela	5	3	8
5	Ecuador	5	1	8
6	Brazil	5	2	7
7	Paraguay	5	-1	5
8	Chile	5	-3	5
9	Bolivia	5	-7	3
10	Peru	5	-7	1

Argentina

All competitions

World Cup Qualifying

Last Game: Argentina 0-2 Uruguay
Friday, November 17 at 12am in World Cup Qualifying - South America

Current CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Argentina	5	5	12
2	Uruguay	5	5	10
3	Colombia	5	2	9
4	Venezuela	5	3	8
5	Ecuador	5	1	8
6	Brazil	5	2	7
7	Paraguay	5	-1	5
8	Chile	5	-3	5
9	Bolivia	5	-7	3
10	Peru	5	-7	1

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Brazil win with a probability of 47.77%. A draw had a probability of 26.2% and a win for Argentina had a probability of 26.02%.

The most likely scoreline for a Brazil win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.15%) and 2-0 (9.02%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.41%), while for an Argentina win it was 0-1 (8.43%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 8.4% likelihood.

Result
Brazil	Draw	Argentina
47.77% ( -1.55)	26.22% ( 0.6)	26.02% ( 0.95)

Both teams to score 49.12% (

-0.93)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

45.29% (

-1.63)

54.71% (

1.63)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

23.97% (

-1.37)

76.03% (

1.37)

Brazil Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

77.09% (

-1.37)

22.91% (

1.38)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

43.33% (

-2.06)

56.68% (

2.07)

Argentina Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

63.72% (

-0.07)

36.28% (

0.08)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

26.93% (

-0.07)

73.07% (

0.08)

Score Analysis

Brazil 47.76%

Argentina 26.02%

Draw 26.21%

Brazil	Draw	Argentina
1-0 @ 12.24% ( 0.27) 2-1 @ 9.15% ( -0.19) 2-0 @ 9.02% ( -0.17) 3-1 @ 4.49% ( -0.29) 3-0 @ 4.43% ( -0.27) 3-2 @ 2.28% ( -0.15) 4-1 @ 1.66% ( -0.18) 4-0 @ 1.63% ( -0.17) Other @ 2.85% Total : 47.76%	1-1 @ 12.41% ( 0.25) 0-0 @ 8.31% ( 0.52) 2-2 @ 4.64% ( -0.11) Other @ 0.85% Total : 26.21%	0-1 @ 8.43% ( 0.51) 1-2 @ 6.3% ( 0.12) 0-2 @ 4.27% ( 0.25) 1-3 @ 2.13% ( 0.04) 2-3 @ 1.57% ( -0.04) 0-3 @ 1.44% ( 0.08) Other @ 1.88% Total : 26.02%