World Cup

World Cup Qualifying - South America | Group Stage

Oct 13, 2023 at 12am UK

Estadio Monumental Antonio Vespucio Liberti

Argentina
1 - 0
Paraguay

Otamendi (3', 3')
Fernandez (7'), Fernandez (7')

FT(HT: 2-0)

Alonso (21'), Alonso (21'), Bareiro (50'), Bareiro (50')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's World Cup Qualifying - South America clash between Argentina and Paraguay, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Predicted Lineups

Sports Mole takes an in-depth look at how Argentina could line up for Friday's CONMEBOL World Cup qualifier against Paraguay.

Form, Standings, Stats

Argentina

All competitions

World Cup Qualifying

Last Game: Bolivia 0-3 Argentina
Tuesday, September 12 at 9pm in World Cup Qualifying - South America

Current CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Brazil	2	5	6
2	Argentina	2	4	6
3	Colombia	2	1	4
4	Uruguay	2	1	3
5	Ecuador	2	0	3
6	Venezuela	2	0	3
7	Paraguay	2	-1	1
8	Peru	2	-1	1
9	Chile	2	-2	1
10	Bolivia	2	-7	0

Paraguay

All competitions

World Cup Qualifying

Last Game: Venezuela 1-0 Paraguay
Tuesday, September 12 at 11pm in World Cup Qualifying - South America

Current CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Brazil	2	5	6
2	Argentina	2	4	6
3	Colombia	2	1	4
4	Uruguay	2	1	3
5	Ecuador	2	0	3
6	Venezuela	2	0	3
7	Paraguay	2	-1	1
8	Peru	2	-1	1
9	Chile	2	-2	1
10	Bolivia	2	-7	0

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Argentina win with a probability of 85.6%. A draw had a probability of 10.9% and a win for Paraguay had a probability of 3.45%.

The most likely scoreline for an Argentina win was 2-0 with a probability of 16.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (14.96%) and 1-0 (12.6%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (4.84%), while for a Paraguay win it was 0-1 (1.81%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Argentina would win this match.

Result
Argentina	Draw	Paraguay
85.6% ( -0.73)	10.95% ( 0.52)	3.45% ( 0.21)

Both teams to score 29.65% (

0.06)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

58.86% (

-1.3)

41.14% (

1.29)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

36.46% (

-1.33)

63.54% (

1.33)

Argentina Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

93.07% (

-0.42)

6.93% (

0.42)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

74.57% (

-1.13)

25.42% (

1.13)

Paraguay Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

31.86% (

0.21)

68.14% (

-0.21)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

5.72% (

0.08)

94.28% (

-0.08)

Score Analysis

Argentina 85.58%

Paraguay 3.45%

Draw 10.95%

Argentina	Draw	Paraguay
2-0 @ 16.82% ( 0.22) 3-0 @ 14.96% ( -0.16) 1-0 @ 12.6% ( 0.45) 4-0 @ 9.99% ( -0.33) 2-1 @ 6.45% ( 0.14) 3-1 @ 5.74% ( -0.01) 5-0 @ 5.33% ( -0.31) 4-1 @ 3.83% ( -0.1) 6-0 @ 2.37% ( -0.2) 5-1 @ 2.05% ( -0.1) 3-2 @ 1.1% ( 0.01) 6-1 @ 0.91% ( -0.07) 7-0 @ 0.91% ( -0.1) Other @ 2.52% Total : 85.58%	1-1 @ 4.84% ( 0.21) 0-0 @ 4.72% ( 0.27) 2-2 @ 1.24% ( 0.04) Other @ 0.15% Total : 10.95%	0-1 @ 1.81% ( 0.12) 1-2 @ 0.93% ( 0.05) Other @ 0.72% Total : 3.45%