Copa America | Group Stage

Jun 24, 2024 at 11pm UK

NRG Stadium

Colombia
2 - 1
Paraguay

Munoz (32'), Lerma (42')
Lerma (14')

FT(HT: 2-0)

Enciso (69')
Velazquez (53'), Cubas (78'), Oscar Garnero (90+4')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Monday's Copa America clash between Colombia and Paraguay, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Colombia

All competitions

Last Game: Colombia 3-0 Bolivia
Saturday, June 15 at 10pm in International Friendlies

Current CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Argentina	6	6	15
2	Uruguay	6	8	13
3	Colombia	6	3	12
4	Ecuador	6	2	11
5	Venezuela	6	3	9
6	Brazil	6	1	7
7	Paraguay	6	-2	5
8	Chile	6	-4	5
9	Bolivia	6	-10	3
10	Peru	6	-7	2

Paraguay

All competitions

Last Game: Panama 0-1 Paraguay
Sunday, June 16 at 11.30pm in International Friendlies

Current CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Argentina	6	6	15
2	Uruguay	6	8	13
3	Colombia	6	3	12
4	Ecuador	6	2	11
5	Venezuela	6	3	9
6	Brazil	6	1	7
7	Paraguay	6	-2	5
8	Chile	6	-4	5
9	Bolivia	6	-10	3
10	Peru	6	-7	2

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Colombia win with a probability of 50.42%. A draw had a probability of 27.7% and a win for Paraguay had a probability of 21.89%.

The most likely scoreline for a Colombia win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.7%) and 2-1 (8.62%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.5%), while for a Paraguay win it was 0-1 (9.07%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Colombia would win this match.

Result
Colombia	Draw	Paraguay
50.42% ( -0.02)	27.69% ( 0.05)	21.89% ( -0.03)

Both teams to score 41.35% (

-0.16)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

37.28% (

-0.19)

62.72% (

0.19)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

17.73% (

-0.14)

82.26% (

0.14)

Colombia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

74.8% (

-0.1)

25.2% (

0.1)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

40.07% (

-0.13)

59.93% (

0.13)

Paraguay Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

55.28% (

-0.15)

44.72% (

0.15)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

19.29% (

-0.12)

80.71% (

0.12)

Score Analysis

Colombia 50.41%

Paraguay 21.89%

Draw 27.69%

Colombia	Draw	Paraguay
1-0 @ 15.53% ( 0.07) 2-0 @ 10.7% ( 0.02) 2-1 @ 8.62% ( -0.02) 3-0 @ 4.92% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 3.96% ( -0.02) 4-0 @ 1.7% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 1.59% ( -0.02) 4-1 @ 1.36% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.03% Total : 50.41%	1-1 @ 12.5% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 11.26% ( 0.08) 2-2 @ 3.47% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.46% Total : 27.69%	0-1 @ 9.07% ( 0.03) 1-2 @ 5.03% ( -0.02) 0-2 @ 3.65% ( -0) 1-3 @ 1.35% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 0.98% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 0.93% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.89% Total : 21.89%