Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Russia win with a probability of 85.54%. A draw had a probability of 10.4% and a win for Paraguay had a probability of 4.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Russia win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (13.42%) and 4-0 (9.72%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (4.9%), while for a Paraguay win it was 0-1 (1.69%).