Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Russia win with a probability of 48.3%. A draw had a probability of 27.3% and a win for Kenya had a probability of 24.41%.
The most likely scoreline for a Russia win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.75%) and 1-2 (8.83%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.65%), while for a Kenya win it was 1-0 (9.08%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4% likelihood.