Africa Cup of Nations

Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying | Group Stage

Sep 10, 2024 at 8pm UK

Levy Mwanawasa Stadium

Zambia
3 - 2
Sierra Leone

Musonda (28'), Kampamba (70'), Kangwa (85')
Chaiwa (30')

FT(HT: 1-1)

Kargbo (33'), Mustapha (73')
Mustapha (90+4')

Coverage of the Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying Group Stage clash between Zambia and Sierra Leone.

Form, Standings, Stats

Zambia

All competitions

Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Last Game: Ivory Coast 2-0 Zambia
Friday, September 6 at 8pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Current Group F Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Morocco	3	4	7
2	Congo DR	3	0	3
3	Zambia	3	-1	2
4	Tanzania	3	-3	2

Sierra Leone

All competitions

Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Last Game: Sierra Leone 0-0 Chad
Friday, September 6 at 5pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Current Group E Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Ivory Coast	3	3	7
2	Equatorial Guinea	3	1	6
3	Sierra Leone	3	-1	2
4	Algeria	3	-3	1

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Zambia win with a probability of 52.66%. A draw had a probability of 25.8% and a win for Sierra Leone had a probability of 21.51%.

The most likely scoreline for a Zambia win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.57%) and 2-1 (9.24%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.08%), while for a Sierra Leone win it was 0-1 (7.91%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Zambia would win this match.

Result
Zambia	Draw	Sierra Leone
52.66% ( -0.48)	25.82% ( 0.25)	21.51% ( 0.25)

Both teams to score 45.64% (

-0.36)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

43.11% (

-0.63)

56.89% (

0.63)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

22.19% (

-0.51)

77.81% (

0.51)

Zambia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

78.32% (

-0.46)

21.68% (

0.47)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

45.18% (

-0.71)

54.82% (

0.72)

Sierra Leone Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

58.27% (

-0.11)

41.72% (

0.11)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

21.8% (

-0.1)

78.19% (

0.1)

Score Analysis

Zambia 52.65%

Sierra Leone 21.51%

Draw 25.82%

Zambia	Draw	Sierra Leone
1-0 @ 13.82% ( 0.14) 2-0 @ 10.57% ( -0.04) 2-1 @ 9.24% ( -0.06) 3-0 @ 5.39% ( -0.1) 3-1 @ 4.71% ( -0.1) 4-0 @ 2.06% ( -0.07) 3-2 @ 2.06% ( -0.05) 4-1 @ 1.8% ( -0.06) Other @ 3.01% Total : 52.65%	1-1 @ 12.08% ( 0.08) 0-0 @ 9.04% ( 0.22) 2-2 @ 4.04% ( -0.04) Other @ 0.65% Total : 25.82%	0-1 @ 7.91% ( 0.17) 1-2 @ 5.28% ( 0.02) 0-2 @ 3.46% ( 0.06) 1-3 @ 1.54% ( 0) 2-3 @ 1.18% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 1.01% ( 0.02) Other @ 1.15% Total : 21.51%