Welsh Premier League | Gameweek 1
Feb 11, 2025 at 7.45pm UK
The Oval

Caernarfon
0 - 1
New Saints


John Williams (56'), Downey (65'), (90+6'), Jones (90+7'), Jones (90+7')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Wilson (21')
Pask (90+5')
Coverage of the Welsh Premier League clash between Caernarfon Town and The New Saints.

Form, Standings, Stats

Caernarfon Town

All competitions
Last Game: Caernarfon 1-1 Haverfordwest
Saturday, February 8 at 2.30pm in Welsh Premier League

The New Saints

All competitions
Last Game: New Saints 4-0 Pen-y-Bont
Saturday, February 8 at 12.15pm in Welsh Premier League

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a The New Saints win with a probability of 71.17%. A draw had a probability of 16.2% and a win for Caernarfon Town had a probability of 12.61%.

The most likely scoreline for a The New Saints win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.27%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.18%) and 1-3 (7.98%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.18%), while for a Caernarfon Town win it was 2-1 (3.63%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that The New Saints would win this match.

Result
Caernarfon TownDrawThe New Saints
12.61% (0.357 0.36)16.23% (0.35 0.35)71.17% (-0.705 -0.7)
Both teams to score 58.79% (-0.273 -0.27)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
69.6% (-0.83800000000001 -0.84)30.4% (0.839 0.84)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
48.33% (-1.01 -1.01)51.68% (1.012 1.01)
Caernarfon Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
63.6% (-0.061 -0.06)36.4% (0.062999999999995 0.06)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
26.82% (-0.059000000000001 -0.06)73.19% (0.062000000000012 0.06)
The New Saints Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
92.44% (-0.337 -0.34)7.56% (0.34 0.34)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
72.92% (-0.88499999999999 -0.88)27.09% (0.888 0.89)
Score Analysis
    Caernarfon Town 12.61%
    The New Saints 71.17%
    Draw 16.23%
Caernarfon TownDrawThe New Saints
2-1 @ 3.63% (0.095 0.1)
1-0 @ 2.78% (0.126 0.13)
3-2 @ 1.58% (0.011 0.01)
2-0 @ 1.41% (0.061 0.06)
3-1 @ 1.22% (0.031 0.03)
Other @ 1.99%
Total : 12.61%
1-1 @ 7.18% (0.201 0.2)
2-2 @ 4.69% (0.042 0.04)
0-0 @ 2.75% (0.128 0.13)
3-3 @ 1.36% (-0.014 -0.01)
Other @ 0.25%
Total : 16.23%
1-2 @ 9.27% (0.099 0.1)
0-2 @ 9.18% (0.113 0.11)
1-3 @ 7.98% (-0.056000000000001 -0.06)
0-3 @ 7.9% (-0.042 -0.04)
0-1 @ 7.11% (0.211 0.21)
1-4 @ 5.15% (-0.129 -0.13)
0-4 @ 5.1% (-0.118 -0.12)
2-3 @ 4.03% (-0.034999999999999 -0.03)
1-5 @ 2.66% (-0.115 -0.12)
0-5 @ 2.63% (-0.109 -0.11)
2-4 @ 2.6% (-0.07 -0.07)
2-5 @ 1.34% (-0.061 -0.06)
1-6 @ 1.15% (-0.071 -0.07)
0-6 @ 1.13% (-0.068 -0.07)
Other @ 3.94%
Total : 71.17%

Head to Head
Dec 26, 2024 2.30pm
Gameweek 20
Caernarfon
2-5
New Saints
Lloyd (5'), Clarke (18')
Mooney (64')
Bodenham (2', 40'), Williams (11'), Clark (73', 74')
Oct 9, 2024 7.45pm
Gameweek 1
New Saints
1-2
Caernarfon
Smith (12')
Clarke (33'), Lloyd (82')
Apr 5, 2024 7.45pm
Gameweek 8
New Saints
7-1
Caernarfon
McManus (7', 59' pen.), Clark (13'), Cieslewicz (16', 47'), Redmond (22'), Hudson (90')
Lloyd (72')
Maher (33')
Maher (33')
Feb 23, 2024 7.45pm
Gameweek 3
Caernarfon
1-8
New Saints
Bradley (7')
Young (2', 34', 49'), Cieslewicz (30', 31'), Holden (55', 90'), Hudson (85')
Young (73')
Dec 26, 2023 2.30pm
Gameweek 20
New Saints
2-1
Caernarfon
Williams (78'), Marriott (81')
Roberts (14'), Davies (45+1'), Davies (45+1'), Williams (82')
Lloyd (13')
Wynne (82')
rhs 2.0


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