MX23RW : Friday, March 21 17:15:56| >> :300:86500:86500:
Welsh Premier League | Gameweek 1
Feb 11, 2025 at 7.45pm UK
The Oval

Caernarfon
0 - 1
New Saints


John Williams (56'), Downey (65'), (90+6'), Jones (90+7'), Jones (90+7')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Wilson (21')
Pask (90+5')
Coverage of the Welsh Premier League clash between Caernarfon Town and The New Saints.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Caernarfon 1-1 Haverfordwest
Saturday, February 8 at 2.30pm in Welsh Premier League
Last Game: New Saints 4-0 Pen-y-Bont
Saturday, February 8 at 12.15pm in Welsh Premier League

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a The New Saints win with a probability of 71.17%. A draw had a probability of 16.2% and a win for Caernarfon Town had a probability of 12.61%.

The most likely scoreline for a The New Saints win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.27%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.18%) and 1-3 (7.98%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.18%), while for a Caernarfon Town win it was 2-1 (3.63%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that The New Saints would win this match.

Result
Caernarfon TownDrawThe New Saints
12.61% (0.357 0.36) 16.23% (0.35 0.35) 71.17% (-0.705 -0.7)
Both teams to score 58.79% (-0.273 -0.27)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
69.6% (-0.83800000000001 -0.84)30.4% (0.839 0.84)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
48.33% (-1.01 -1.01)51.68% (1.012 1.01)
Caernarfon Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
63.6% (-0.061 -0.06)36.4% (0.062999999999995 0.06)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
26.82% (-0.059000000000001 -0.06)73.19% (0.062000000000012 0.06)
The New Saints Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
92.44% (-0.337 -0.34)7.56% (0.34 0.34)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
72.92% (-0.88499999999999 -0.88)27.09% (0.888 0.89)
Score Analysis
    Caernarfon Town 12.61%
    The New Saints 71.17%
    Draw 16.23%
Caernarfon TownDrawThe New Saints
2-1 @ 3.63% (0.095 0.1)
1-0 @ 2.78% (0.126 0.13)
3-2 @ 1.58% (0.011 0.01)
2-0 @ 1.41% (0.061 0.06)
3-1 @ 1.22% (0.031 0.03)
Other @ 1.99%
Total : 12.61%
1-1 @ 7.18% (0.201 0.2)
2-2 @ 4.69% (0.042 0.04)
0-0 @ 2.75% (0.128 0.13)
3-3 @ 1.36% (-0.014 -0.01)
Other @ 0.25%
Total : 16.23%
1-2 @ 9.27% (0.099 0.1)
0-2 @ 9.18% (0.113 0.11)
1-3 @ 7.98% (-0.056000000000001 -0.06)
0-3 @ 7.9% (-0.042 -0.04)
0-1 @ 7.11% (0.211 0.21)
1-4 @ 5.15% (-0.129 -0.13)
0-4 @ 5.1% (-0.118 -0.12)
2-3 @ 4.03% (-0.034999999999999 -0.03)
1-5 @ 2.66% (-0.115 -0.12)
0-5 @ 2.63% (-0.109 -0.11)
2-4 @ 2.6% (-0.07 -0.07)
2-5 @ 1.34% (-0.061 -0.06)
1-6 @ 1.15% (-0.071 -0.07)
0-6 @ 1.13% (-0.068 -0.07)
Other @ 3.94%
Total : 71.17%

Head to Head
Dec 26, 2024 2.30pm
Gameweek 20
Caernarfon
2-5
New Saints
Lloyd (5'), Clarke (18')
Mooney (64')
Bodenham (2', 40'), Williams (11'), Clark (73', 74')
Oct 9, 2024 7.45pm
Gameweek 1
New Saints
1-2
Caernarfon
Smith (12')
Clarke (33'), Lloyd (82')
Apr 5, 2024 7.45pm
Gameweek 8
New Saints
7-1
Caernarfon
McManus (7', 59' pen.), Clark (13'), Cieslewicz (16', 47'), Redmond (22'), Hudson (90')
Lloyd (72')
Maher (33')
Maher (33')
Feb 23, 2024 7.45pm
Gameweek 3
Caernarfon
1-8
New Saints
Bradley (7')
Young (2', 34', 49'), Cieslewicz (30', 31'), Holden (55', 90'), Hudson (85')
Young (73')
Dec 26, 2023 2.30pm
Gameweek 20
New Saints
2-1
Caernarfon
Williams (78'), Marriott (81')
Roberts (14'), Davies (45+1'), Davies (45+1'), Williams (82')
Lloyd (13')
Wynne (82')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
Championship Round
1The New SaintsNew Saints28230578285069
2Pen-y-BontPen-y-Bont28167548272155
3Haverfordwest CountyHaverfordwest281310535191649
4Cardiff MUCardiff MU28126104137442
5Caernarfon TownCaernarfon28125114446-241
6Bala TownBala Town2871293434033
Relegation Round
1Barry Town UnitedBarry2812794447-343
2Connah's Quay NomadsConnah's Quay281151243291438
3Flint Town UnitedFlint Town2893163758-2130
4Briton Ferry2875164358-1526
5Newtown AFCNewtown2868143153-2226
6Aberystwyth TownAberystwyth2852212365-4217
 
Regular Season
1The New SaintsNew Saints22170561263551
2Pen-y-BontPen-y-Bont22155242162650
3Haverfordwest CountyHaverfordwest22117429111840
4Caernarfon TownCaernarfon2210483535034
5Bala TownBala Town2271142821732
6Cardiff MUCardiff MU229583229332
7Barry Town UnitedBarry228683238-630
8Connah's Quay NomadsConnah's Quay2275103226626
9Briton Ferry2263133345-1221
10Flint Town UnitedFlint Town2262142747-2020
11Newtown AFCNewtown2254132446-2219
12Aberystwyth TownAberystwyth2242161853-3514


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